Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2002

DEEP RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE N OF THE CWFA. A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD
TROF...UNDER THE RIDGE...REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CWFA. THE UPPER
TROF HAS MOVED JUST A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS
PLACED THE AXIS OF THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE...AND SFC MOISTURE
FLUX DIV...A LITTLE FARTHER S TDA AS WELL. WHILE FOR THE PAST THREE
DAYS THIS AXIS WAS CENTERED OVER THE MTNS...TDA IT RUNS FROM GSO TO
GLT TO GRD.

ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY UNSTABLE. THE LATEST GOES SOUNDER
DATA SHOWS THAT LI/S ARE RUNNING -7 TO -8 OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA...W/MICROBURST POTENTIAL RUNNING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS.

WOULD EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE ERN CWA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WL MAKE FINAL POP DECISION SHORTLY BEFORE
ZONES GO OUT.

ETA INDICATES THAT H5 TEMPS WARM QUITE A BIT BY FRI AFTN. FOR MOST
OF THE DAY...THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE WL BE EVEN FARTHER S THAN TDA.
HOWEVER...AFTER ABOUT 21Z...PRESSURES FALL OVER THE ERN CWA W/BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR AGAIN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONT. THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD GET OFF TO A
LATER START TMRW...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SCT TSRA ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA BY LATE AFTN.

WL KEEP POPS IN THE UPSTATE SAT...BUT REMOVE THEM FROM THE REST OF
THE CWA AS SFC FRONT WL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED FEATURES UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN USA. SURFACE RIDGE
EXITING E COAST MON/TUE. COLD FRONT MOVES S INTO AREA WED...THEN S
OF AREA THU...WHERE IT STALLS. HAVE CHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON/TUE...THEN RUN POPS THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
POPS IN THU/FRI AS MOISTURE LINGERS...AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT POSSIBLE
IN NE FLOW BEHIND FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOLER WED WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING...THEN MODERATING THU WITH LESS CLOUD.

FCSTID =
GSP   68  94  70  88 /  40  30  30  30
AND   68  94  70  88 /  40  30  30  30
CLT   68  94  70  88 /  50  30  30  30
HKY   66  92  68  85 /  40  40  30  20
AVL   61  87  64  81 /  50  40  30  20

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY/07

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-042230-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SINCE YESTERDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE
DAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST.

WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AREA AFFECTED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IN PARTICULAR...THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

220 PM     3 N HARRISBURG            NC   .88 INCH HAIL
07/04/02   MECKLENBURG                    SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          NICKEL HAIL ON HWY 49.

LAMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

220 PM     3 N HARRISBURG            NC   .88 INCH HAIL
07/04/02   CABARRUS                       SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          NICKEL HAIL ON HWY 49.

LAMB