Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

TSRA ARE DEVELOPING AT THE SAME PLACE...AT THE SAME TIME AND WITH
THE SAME INTENSITY AS YDAY. CURRENTLY CAPES ARE RUNNING AOA 3000
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY THING DIFFERENT ON THE GSO
SOUNDING WAS THE WBZ WHICH WAS A LITTLE OVER 11KFT THIS
MORNING...ABOUT 1500 FT HIGHER THAN YDAY. THETA-E DIFFERENCES OFF OF
THE NESDIS GOES WEB PAGE SHOW DELTA/S OF 25 TO 30 DEG...SIMILAR ONCE
AGAIN TO YDAY.

THE FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE OUT THE E TDA...AND A LITTLE STRONGER.
THIS MAY KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE
LONGER...BUT SINCE THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE IS ACTUALLY
CENTERED E OF THE MTNS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP E ON
OUTFLOW BNDRYS.

POPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE DECIDED AT THE LAST MINUTE BASED ON THE
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION. WL PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY W
AND CHANCE E ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

BY WED AFTN...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WL BE A LITTLE MORE ELY THAN
TDA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WL PUSH IN A LITTLE CLOSER FROM THE NW.
THIS WOULD IMPLY A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL
INVERSION. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS SEEM LIKE A GOOD IDEA.
THIS WL ALSO RESULT IN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

BY LATE THU...SFC FRONT WL PUSH INTO THE NRN MOST ZONES. FLOW ALOFT
IS KIND OF WEAK...BUT AVN POOLS MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTN. WL CARRY 40 POPS
N AND 30 SOUTH. WL CARRY 40 POPS ALL ZONES FRI. CAN/T BE TOO SURE OF
LOCATION OF FRONT...AS A GREAT DEAL WL BE DEPENDANT ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BEHIND FRI/S FRONT RIDGING BOTH FROM SFC NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND ALOFT
SHOULD SQUELCH STRONG CONVECTION...LEAVING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
BEHIND A FIELD OF CUMULUS. SUN...DEEP LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES AND
AIRMASS DRIES FURTHER...CU RULE VALUES ARE ALSO WARMING...LEADING TO
LESS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. AVN BACKS H5 RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE FA AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MOISTURE DEEPENS ON MONDAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME AIRMASS TS...FOR
NOW LOOKS AS IF COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO 20% AND WILL USE SILENT
20 POPS. TUE SFC FRONT FROM THE LOW ENTERS THE FA FROM THE NW WITH
GOOD CAA. I BELIEVE THAT THE AVN IS GOING A LITTLE TOO FAR WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE POPS FOR TS/SH AS
BOUNDARY LAYER LIS ARE COMFORTABLY IN THE NEGATIVE RANGE. WILL KEEP
TEMPS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FCSTID =
GSP   72  92  71  92 /  30  30  30  30
AND   72  92  71  92 /  30  30  30  30
CLT   69  92  68  92 /  30  30  30  30
HKY   69  90  68  90 /  30  30  30  30
AVL   68  87  67  87 /  40  40  40  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY/NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-030230-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT 130 PM
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS...THOUGH THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

AS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PROGRESS...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST. JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOCATIONS WITHIN ABOUT 50 MILES OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOST AT RISK.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
DEVELOP.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/GSP

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

200 PM     15 S FRANKLIN             NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   MACON                          PUBLIC REPORT.

JAT