Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2002

TSRA ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. CAPES ARE AOA 3000 AND WET BULB ZEROS ARE UNDER 10KFT.
SFC DWPTS HAVE HARDLY MIXED OUT AT ALL TDA AND LLVL MOISTURE FLUX
DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN BULLSEYED OVER THE NC MTNS FOR SEVERAL HRS NOW.

IN ADDITION...A COUPLE WEAK H5 WAVES WL CROSS THE REGION FROM NE TO
SW OVERNGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP GOING
WELL INTO THE NGHT. AS FOR 1ST PERIOD THE AREAL COVERAGE...ITS TOO
SOON TO REALLY TELL. WL INITIALLY PENCIL IN LIKELY POPS OVER THE SW
CWA AND CHANCE POPS N TNGT...THOUGH IF THE VORT OVER WV CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE CONVECTION...WE COULD BE FACING SOMETHING ORGANIZED IN THE
NRN ZONES LATE.

TUE LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TDA. WEAK SHEAR AIXS WL CONTINUE TO BE
ORIENTED NE TO SW ACROSS CWA. LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WL CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA TO THE SE OF THESE UPPER WAVES DURING THE DAY...W/GOOD
AREAL COVERAGE LIKELY AGAIN IN THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY WED...DEEP MID CONTINENTAL RIDGE WL BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE
EAST. THE COLD TROF E OF THE RIDGE SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENUF FOR
TSRA IN THE AFTN...BUT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE WL NOT BE AS
GREAT.

DEEP ELY FLOW ON THE 4TH. NO LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SPEAK OF
ANYMORE...AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD REALLY EAT INTO OUR
INSTABILITY. WE MAY SEE HARDLY ANYTHING THU...BUT WL HOLD ON TO 30
POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR FRI...AVN PUSHES A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR BUT WEAKER FEATURE SO
WILL PRESERVE CHC POPS OF AFTERNOON TO EVENING TS/SH. FRONT SHOULD
WASH OUT SAT AND SUN AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SILENT 20
POPS. MONDAY...REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND WILL KEEP DRY AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER MEX VALUES AS PLAINS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FASTER THAN THE AVN
ADVERTISES...THEREFORE WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE.

FCSTID = 14
GSP   72  92  72  92 /  60  30  30  30
AND   72  92  72  92 /  60  30  30  30
CLT   71  92  71  92 /  30  30  30  30
HKY   70  89  70  89 /  40  40  40  30
AVL   66  85  66  85 /  60  50  50  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY/NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-012200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES STRONG.  MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE...AND THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WERE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL START IN
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT SECTIONS A BIT LATER...WITH PEAK DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

ANY STORMS TODAY COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH FREQUENT INTENSE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...LOCAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP OVER URBAN AREAS.
SEVERE URBAN FLOODING DEVELOPED YESTERDAY IN PARTS OF
GREENVILLE...REQUIRING A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. SIMILAR STORMS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR AGAIN LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING ANY URBAN OR LOW FLOOD PRONE AREA.

SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AGAIN TODAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS YESTERDAY CAUSED A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF DIME
TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHICH DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES.

ALTHOUGH A SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED
THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING...IN PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO LATER STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
USING NORMAL SKYWARN PROCEDURES.

JONES