Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2002

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS...UNDER MID-LEVEL COLD
POOL...TO SPIN UP ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ELSEWHERE JUST PARTLY CLOUDY. BELIEVE
WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH OUTSIDE MOUNTAINS TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH I AM FORECASTING A DECREASE LATE.

AM FEELING A BIT MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAN IN
PAST DAYS...AS MODELS SEEM TO FINALLY BE REACHING A CONSENSUS. UPPER
LOW TO MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS NEXT FEW
DAYS...FINALLY REACHING A POSITION IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BOTH ETA AND AVN REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF SURFACE
WAVE ON SOUTHERN END OF INVERTED TROF ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS...PLACING A LOW IN NORTH FLORIDA BY 48 HOURS. MOISTURE
MINIMUM ON FRIDAY...AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR 85H COLD
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. SINCE IT IS LATE JUNE AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE MAXES ON
FRIDAY ALL AREAS. COULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COLD POOL SHIFTS SOUTH BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND RESULTANT LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP...BUT
WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE NOW EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE STEADILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NITE AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR
SOUTH...AND MODELS ADVERTISE A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE
RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AVN QPF NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL GO WITH 40 POPS IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA/UPSTATE/AND THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR
SATURDAY...WITH 30S FOR REMAINING AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. IN
ACCORDANCE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH FEATURES PROGD MAXES IN THE
70S FOR MOST AREAS...WILL HAVE A RANGE OF 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80
SOUTH.

LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS UNCHANGED UNTIL MIDWEEK. NOGAPS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN BEGIN WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE BY MIDWEEK...AND
ATTEMPT TO HAVE THE WAVE INFILTRATE THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY WORKING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN MOIST...WARM AND
UNSTABLE...SO LONGER RANGE PERIODS FEATURE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

FCSTID = 44
GSP   64  87  65  79 /  20  10  20  40
AND   64  88  65  79 /  20  10  20  40
CLT   64  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  40
HKY   62  85  64  75 /  10  10  10  30
AVL   58  84  58  76 /  20  20  20  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>003-202200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2002

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD.  HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG...WITH PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR
HIGHER. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...SO
PEOPLE IN OUTDOOR AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO SAFETY BEFORE A STORM ARRIVES.

A STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE A BIT LARGER HAIL...UP TO DIME OR
QUARTER SIZE...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS COULD BECOME
NECESSARY IN THOSE CASES. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

240 PM     4 NW LEICESTER            NC   .75 INCH HAIL
06/20/02   BUNCOMBE                       SPOTTER REPORTED

JONES