Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NWS COLUMBIA SC
300 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST THAN YDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN A SLOWER TO INITIATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON THAN YDAY. HOWEVER...HEALTHY CU FIELD
AND A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR INDICATE THAT TSRA IS ABOUT TO FIRE.

SIMILAR TO YDAY...FORCING IS RATHER SUBTLE THIS EVENING AS WE ARE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROF EMBEDDED IN THE ERN CONUS
UPPER RIDGE. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER COOL...W/ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SUB-T TROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
SERVE TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION A LITTLE OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND WL
CARRY LIKELY POPS WEST. WITH CAPES AGAIN AOA 3000 IN THE UPSTATE AND
PIEDMONT...EXPECT COLD POOL INTERACTIONS TO SEND CONVECTION SLOWLY E
DURING THE OVERNGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO DO W/POPS E OF THE MTNS. PLAN
TO GO HIGH CHANCE ATTM.

WON/T POST FFA YET. WL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE WHERE THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY WON/T HESITATE TO ISSUE
IF IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WL TRY TO ANCHOR ITSELF TO UPSLOPE
AREAS LIKE IT DID LAST NGHT.

FROPA LATE THU AND THU NGHT. DEEP LLVL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
H3-H2 DIVERGENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. WL GO CAT POPS WRN ZONES AND LIKELY E.

INTERESTINGLY...ONCE THE FRONT IS BY ON FRI...THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE UNSTABLE. WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND NW FLOW AT H5 OF 20 KTS...DEEP
LAYER SR-FLOW WL BE APPROACHING 40 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
AT ANY RATE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO AGAIN FIRE ON THE LEE SLOPES AND
MOVE E...AND HAVE INTRODUCED A 30 POP TO THE ZONES.

SAT THROUGH MON LOOK DRY E OF THE MTNS...WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA FAR
WRN ZONES SUN AND MON AS WEAK UPPER LOWS MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A BUILDING E COAST RIDGE. CHANCE TSRA TUE AND WED.

FCSTID = 14
GSP   70  90  67  84 /  50  60  60  30
AND   71  90  68  84 /  50  60  60  30
CLT   70  91  69  83 /  40  50  60  30
HKY   68  85  66  81 /  60  60  50  30
AVL   65  80  62  79 /  60  80  50  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

SCZ001>014-019-GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-
062>072-082-060206-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NWS COLUMBIA SC
1215 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESULTING FROM YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY INDICATES THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER...WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING IF MORE HEAVY RAIN IS RECEIVED TODAY.

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE
INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND MAKE PRELIMINARY PLANS
TO DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD IT OCCUR.

MCAVOY

SCZ001>014-019-GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-
062>072-082-060206-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NWS COLUMBIA SC
1215 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESULTING FROM YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY INDICATES THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER...WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING IF MORE HEAVY RAIN IS RECEIVED TODAY.

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE
INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND MAKE PRELIMINARY PLANS
TO DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD IT OCCUR.

MCAVOY