Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Issued

Sep 19, 2002, 2:21 PM EDT (18:21 UTC)

Expired

Sep 19, 2002, 3:00 PM EDT

In force

39 min

Issued by

NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area

Whole counties

County Kalamazoo County, MI

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
WUUS53 KGRR 191821
SVRGRR
MIC077-191900-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
221 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 210 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF THREE RIVERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   SCOTTS AROUND 235 PM EDT
   CLIMAX...GALESBURG AROUND 240 PM EDT
   AUGUSTA AROUND 250 PM EDT

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

HAIL UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER...OR ROUGHLY THE
SIZE OF A PENNY...IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 19, 11:04 AM EDT, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1104 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PLENTY THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWS A PATCH WORK OF OVERCAST AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE CWA.
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE NW 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST IS SEEING SUNSHINE.  ANOTHER LARGE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS SITS
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AT THE SAME TIME A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE POPPED UP FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE REGION.  THE
QUESTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE BREAKS
OUT...AND WHERE ARE THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION.

DESPITE THE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON...
THERE IS NOT A GOOD TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  THE LOW LEVEL
JET RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CWA HAS
SHIFTED NORTHEAST.  CAPES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH LI/S AROUND -2...LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION.  THE ONLY FOCUS TO THE CONVECTION MAY BE
TOWARD EVENING WHEN AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING OVER
THE NW CWA...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

AS FOR THE SUNSHINE CHCS/LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CU TO FILL IN MOST CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  SO IM NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF SUN...THE MENTION OF
PARTLY SUNNY STILL LOOKS GOOD.  STILL...ANY SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
RAISE THE TEMPS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO WILL TWEAK UPWARD A
BIT.

JK

.GRR...NONE.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.