Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2002

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FCST IS TIMING/COVERAGE OF TSTA TDY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

BAND OF STG/SVR CONVECTION OVER FAR NW WI...MOVING MAINLY EAST ON EDGE
OF H7 12 CAPPING EDGE. H8/3 THICKNESS FIELDS SUPPORT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOME SLIGHT SRN DRIFT/BLDG NOTED ON DLH 88D
RADAR.  FAR NC WI WILL BE CLOSE TO THIS CONVECTION FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
EARLY THIS AM.  CONVECTION ASSOC WITH A S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OTHERWISE AVN MODEL HAS HANDLED THIS PATTERN THE BEST THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WITH ABOUT A 6 HR SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH THE PCPN AND FRONTAL
POSITION THIS AM COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO RUNS.  IR SAT IMAGE INDICATES
CONVECTION LINGERING BACK WEST TO THE DKTS AT 08Z DUE TO INCREASING WLY
FLOW ALOFT.  FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NW WI THIS AM AND EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AT 00Z.  DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT MAINLY AFTN TIMING OVER EC WI AND POSSIBLY A FEW
HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

BESIDES THE BOWING FEATURE ACRS THE FAR NORTHWEST...INSTABILITY WILL
BECOME GREATER AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...
DUE TO THE LATER TIMING INTO THE AFTN.  MID LEVEL CAP WEAKENS AND CIN
DECREASES AS FRONT APPROACHES.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN INVADE THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO LATER PDS AT THIS TIME.

.GRB...NONE.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TODAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
BEFORE REACHING SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TOWARD THIS EVENING.  UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE AVAILABLE.  AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TODAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
BEFORE REACHING SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TOWARD THIS EVENING.  UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE AVAILABLE.  AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-011-012-011300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
720 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2002

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WATCH INFORMATION FOR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VILAS...FOREST AND FLORENCE COUNTIES
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE STORMS HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL RADIO...OR COMMERCIAL OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB