Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Green Bay, WI

July 21, 2002Florence County, Forest County, Wisconsin

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 21, 2002, 4:30 PM CDT for Florence County, Forest County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 75 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2002, 4:30 PM CDT (21:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2002, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 75 min
Issued by: NWS Green Bay, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 21, 4:40 PM CDT	Thunderstorm Wind 50 E	Alvin, WI
Jul 21, 4:55 PM CDT	Thunderstorm Wind 50 E	Tipler, WI

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 21, 4:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 410 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2410 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -202 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1319 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

974 
WUUS53 KGRB 212130
SVRGRB
WIC037-041-212245-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  FLORENCE COUNTY IN WISCONSIN
  NORTHERN FOREST COUNTY IN WISCONSIN

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SPOTTER
  REPORTS INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
  WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE LINE WAS LOCATED FROM 32 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF FLORENCE TO 74 MILES WEST OF FLORENCE. THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST
  AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ALVIN BY 440 PM CDT.
  TIPLER BY 500 PM CDT.
  LONG LAKE BY 505 PM CDT.
  FLORENCE BY 515 PM CDT.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE FOR WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD GET OFF THE LAKE BEFORE THE STORMS
ARRIVE.

LAT...LON 4627 8881 4587 8898 4562 8897 4619 8759

SKOWRONSKI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 21, 5:15 AM CDT, 11 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 5:15 AM CDT, 11 hours 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE ONGOING RAIN EVENT...AND CHANCES FOR LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

08Z SURFACE ANAL SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL WI TO JUST NORTH OF GRB. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WIND AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RADAR INDICATING TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN SHORT TIME. REPORTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH
TREES DOWN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AREA SPOTTERS.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SOME ON THIS RUN WITH AVN SHOWING FASTER...DEEPER
SOLUTION THAN ETA.  ETA IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...THOUGH
HAS SHOWN SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NEITHER MODEL
DOING WELL WITH QPF FIELDS.  HAVE BASED FORECAST ON ETA AND CURRENT SAT
TRENDS.

DURING THIS PERIOD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO GIVE WAY AS RIDGE IN THE WEST
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED PUTTING STATE BACK INTO COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ZONES LATE IN THE
DAY...THROUGH GREEN BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. AFTER
PASSAGE OF CURRENT MCS...EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. MID LEVELS PRETTY WELL CAPPED WITH 700 TEMPS AT
10-12C. RRQ OF JET EJECTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TO PROVIDE GOOD LIFT
LATE TODAY...TONIGHT AND WITH PWS AOA 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN EVENT
LIKELY. HAVE PUT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES. ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WITH VERY MOIST AIR OVER CWA AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S PUSHING NORTH THROUGH CWA. SIG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES NEAR
3K...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER AREA THIS
EVENING.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHES THROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OVER STATE FOR COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

WITH CLOUDS FROM MORNING CONVECTION...HAVE STAYED WITH COOLER ETA TEMPS
PER PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  EXPECT HEAT INDICES AOA 100 IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED.

COORD WITH LSE...MQT...THANKS

.GRB...NONE.

TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 6:00 AM CDT, 10 hours 30 minutes before

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-211500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 2:00 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MAIN THREAT.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AT OR AROUND 100 TODAY IN AREAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARINETTE TO WAUSAU. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE LATER
TODAY WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THIS WARM AND
HUMID AIR.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON

TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 21, 10:35 AM CDT, 5 hours 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 AM    10 N TRIPOLI              WI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   ONEIDA                         TREES DOWN ON TWO TENTS
                                          NEAR WILLOW FLOWAGE.  NO
                                          INJURIES.  REPORT FROM
                                          PUBLIC.

JKL

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 12:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-212030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 100
TO 105...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  IF YOU
HAVE PLANS OUTDOORS TODAY...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT.

JKL
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 12:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-212030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL...
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 100
TO 105...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  IF YOU
HAVE PLANS OUTDOORS TODAY...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT.

JKL
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

Local storm report, Jul 21, 3:58 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
358 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0342 PM    MANITOWISH WATERS         WI   .75 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   VILAS                          REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

JKL

Local storm report, Jul 21, 4:09 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    5 N BOULDER JUNCTION      WI   .75 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   VILAS                          REPORT FROM SPOTTER.

JKL/MG

Local storm report, Jul 21, 4:26 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
426 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0410 PM    EAGLE RIVER               WI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   VILAS                          TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.
                                          PHELPS AND CONOVER ALSO
                                          AFFECTED.

SANDERS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 3:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Vilas	41 min
Jul 21, 4:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Oneida	59 min
Jul 21, 3:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Oneida, Vilas	78 min
Jul 21, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Oneida	75 min
Jul 21, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln, Marathon	74 min
Jul 21, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln, Marathon	61 min
Jul 21, 6:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Forest, Langlade	56 min
Jul 21, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln, Marathon	53 min
Jul 21, 6:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Portage, Wood	65 min
Jul 21, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Langlade, Menominee, Oconto, Shawano	73 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.