Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2002

THREAT OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT AND MON IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. TEMPS AND
WINDS IN WARM SECTOR ON MON ARE ALSO A CONCERN...ALONG WITH PRECIP
TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF GRB
CWA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...
AND THE 70S AND 80S TO THE SOUTH. AREA RADARS WERE QUIET...BUT
CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO FIRE OVER NW IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
S/W TROF...THE LFQ OF AN 85KT UPPER JET AND INCREASING H8 FLOW. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED TWO SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SYSTEMS...INCLUDING A STG S/W
TROF OVER N AZ...AND A STG UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE AS LLJ CRANKS UP ACROSS WI THIS EVG.
SPC HAS SLGT RISK OVER ALL OF GRB CWA...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE DYNAMICS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE LLVL SHEAR
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL DECIDE AT ISSUANCE TIME WHETHER
TO MENTION SVR WORDING IN THE ZONES.

ON MON...GRB CWA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WINDY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MIXING TO 875-850 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 925 MB FLOW AROUND 35 KTS AND H8
FLOW OF 40-50 KTS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
CAP IS QUITE STG...BUT REMNANTS OF SOUTHWEST U.S. S/W TROF WILL ARRIVE
IN NC WI LATE IN THE DAY...PERHAPS TRIGGERING SCT STG TSTMS THERE. WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR NC/FAR NE WI...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVG
HOURS. EXPECT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NGT TO BE MAINLY DRY.

AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUES...EXPECT PRECIP TO RETURN TUES NGT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLES NE ALONG THE SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT. BEST CHC OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO BE OVER EC WI...WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. WILL TAPER
POPS BACK FARTHER NW.

REMNANTS OF PAC NW SYSTEM ARRIVE LATER THURS INTO FRI...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR THE FRI
PORTION OF THE EFP.

COORD WITH MQT...THANKS.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUSCH
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