Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON LABOR DAY WITH WARM TEMPS AND CHANCE OF
SEVERE LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS GIVEN US DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE BEATEN DOWN WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW EVOLVING
OVER UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE
RIDGING WEST INTO WI. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNEPEG
AREA SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS BASICALLY IN AGREEMENT ON SCENARIO. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL BRING CHANCE OF PCPN SUN AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO NORTH
CENTRAL WI WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. BUFFY
SOUNDINGS FOR RHI SHOW CAPES NEAR 1.4K AND LIS AROUND -5.  SOME SPEED
SHEAR SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS THOUGH WINDS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL.

STRONGER SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING
SIG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ETA TRENDING
STRONGER WITH SYSTEM. 850 TEMPS ON ETA PUSHING 21 DEGREES WITH 2M TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 90S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI MON AFTN. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP A BIT MON.  BOTH ETA AND AVN BRING DEW POINTS UP INTO THE 70S
BY MON. GIVEN ETA WARMER TEMPS...STABILITY INDICES DROP THROUGH THE ROOF
WITH CAPES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES ABOVE 3K. SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALSO SIG WITH HELICITIES ABOVE 250. LLVL JET OF 40KTS AND WBZERO
DROPPING TO BELOW 10K WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE A GOOD BET.
ISSUED SPECIAL HWO AT NOON TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MILD AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE EXTENDED. MRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO COOL ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. NO
CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.GRB...NONE.

TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-312100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOIST AIR IN THE THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON MONDAY AS A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SPARKING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MENOMINEE TO STEVENS POINT. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
ONCE THEY MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN  DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KURIMSKI
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