Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT SUN JUL 28 2002

TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH IN THE FIRST PERIOD. FIRST
IS THE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CWA.
INITIALLY WAS GOING TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS
EVENING IN THE EAST...BUT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA IN A COUPLE HOURS SO
WILL BACK OFF TO CHANCE POPS TO COVER ANYTHING ELSE WHICH DEVELOPS
AFTER ISSUANCE. WIND SHEAR IS BETTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
CWA...BUT IS PROGGED TO BE WEAKER IN AREA WHERE STORMS ARE MORE
PREVALENT...FROM LEOTI TO HILL CITY. THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WITH THESE CELLS.

SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME SMALL
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. ETA-KF HANDLES THIS AREA FAIRLY WELL AND DENOTES
AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NC TO NE COLORADO WHICH DEVELOPS AT MID
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES EARLY IN THE EVENING. WILL GO WITH SOME 30
TO 40 POPS FOR THE WESTERN PART OF CWA FOR THIS EVENING. BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NW PART OF CWA WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND
COLDER AIR IN MID LEVELS.

ETA IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...APPARENTLY IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH
FORCES PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADVECTS IT EAST. FAIRLY DECENT
850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY MAKES THIS SCENARIO
PLAUSIBLE...ALTHOUGH OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH. MODELS ALSO
HINT AT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING OUT OF COLORADO. WILL PUT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR THE COLORADO COUNTIES FOR MONDAY
EVENING TO COVER THIS AND LEAVE THE REST OF CWA DRY PER CURRENT
PACKAGE.

AFTER MONDAY EVENING...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT CORE OF HOT AIR LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH THIS TIME
OVERALL. MRF WANTS TO BRING DOWN A COOL FRONT THURSDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH SLIPS SOME COOL AIR
BENEATH UPPER HIGH...ECMWF DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND KEEPS
UPPER PATTERN RIDGY OVER THE NC STATES AT THAT TIME WITH NO PROGGED
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

.GLD...NONE.

DLF

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-290445-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND
KANSAS TO KIT CARSON COLORADO LINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. BY 3 MDT (4 PM CDT)...THE FRONT WILL BE
ROUGHLY ALONG AN OBERLIN TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. THE AIR MASS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WEST OF THE OBERLIN TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT MAY SLOW SOME...AND
ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS ON THIS
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

LAMMERS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-290445-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND EAST OF AN OBERLIN TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND
KANSAS TO KIT CARSON COLORADO LINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. BY 3 MDT (4 PM CDT)...THE FRONT WILL BE
ROUGHLY ALONG AN OBERLIN TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. THE AIR MASS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WEST OF AN OBERLIN TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT MAY SLOW SOME...AND
ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS ON THIS
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.