Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES NEXT 48 HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

18Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA WAS DRIFTING WEST.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH REGARD TO WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. MODELS ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT AND FUTURE POSITION OF SURFACE TROF
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

WILL GO WITH ETA AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS BEST HANDLING OF
SURFACE TROUGH IN NEIGHBORHOOD AS WELL AS WITH 8H AND 7H TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT WEAK BOUNDARY NEARBY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS BEST INSTABILITY.
VERY WARM 850 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH GOOD
CAPPING. HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S COUPLED WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND HIGH LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG WITH THE BORDERING
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE LOWER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WILL GO CLOSE TO MILD GUIDANCE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

ON TUESDAY MODELS PROG WEAK COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PASS ACROSS
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO CLOSE TO AVN
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. NO MAJOR SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY SPOTTY DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND HOT WEATHER ACROSS CWA AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH ONLY
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE AROUND TOP OF UPPER BUBBLE HIGH. WILL KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEASONAL IN THE 90S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WILL TRANSPORT LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE TROUGH.  SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MOIST
AIR AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAKING CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 94 TO 104
WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT
COVERAGE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO HOXIE TO
GOVE...WHERE MICROBURST WINDS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH AND SOFT HAIL
GREATER THAN 3/4 INCH IS POSSIBLE.  AGAIN...ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THIS STRONG.

&&

ENTWISTLE