Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2002

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS DEVELOP EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION DUE TO THIS FEATURE PLUS
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z RUC MODEL HAS DELAYED
PRECIPITATION UNTIL 15Z. THE BEST CONVECTION...HOWEVER...WILL BE
LATER IN THE DAY. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME ALMOST DUE
EAST...STRONGLY UPSLOPE. DECENT SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 18Z.
BRIEF/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...SO CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOWER 80S AGAIN. THICKNESSES BUILD A LITTLE SUNDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

IN THE LONGER TERM...500 MB RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LATEST AVN RUN KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA WHERE FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT.
EARLIER FORECAST HAS CONVECTION MENTIONED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE DUE PROXIMITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONES NEAR THE
AREA.

.GLD...NONE.
MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 AM    3 S HILL CITY             KS   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/02   GRAHAM                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-152245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE PROVIDING A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
TRI STATE REGION. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MID DAY AND
BECOME SEVERE AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER
AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS EVENING WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE AS STORMSY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

LOCKHART

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-152030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1126 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT (600 PM
CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 500 PM MDT (600 PM CDT). THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED
IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH:

IN COLORADO...CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES.

IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...DECATUR...GOVE...GRAHAM...GREELEY...
LOGAN...NORTON...RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...SHERMAN...THOMAS...
WALLACE AND WICHITA COUNTIES.

IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES.

RUBIN