Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2002

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS DEVELOP EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION DUE TO THIS FEATURE PLUS
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z RUC MODEL HAS DELAYED
PRECIPITATION UNTIL 15Z. THE BEST CONVECTION...HOWEVER...WILL BE
LATER IN THE DAY. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME ALMOST DUE
EAST...STRONGLY UPSLOPE. DECENT SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 18Z.
BRIEF/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...SO CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOWER 80S AGAIN. THICKNESSES BUILD A LITTLE SUNDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

IN THE LONGER TERM...500 MB RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LATEST AVN RUN KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA WHERE FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT.
EARLIER FORECAST HAS CONVECTION MENTIONED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE DUE PROXIMITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONES NEAR THE
AREA.

.GLD...NONE.
MENTZER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
318 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE TRI STATE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...PROVIDING A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE TRI
STATE REGION. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A CLUSTER AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT THIS EVENING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE TRI
STATE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

KILLINGSWORTH/MENTZER