Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2002

CHALLENGES REMAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP TONIGHT (PARTICULARLY) THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY IN VCNTY A LINE FROM ELKHART TO
ELLIS TO SMITH CENTER. THIS APPEARS WOULD BE A KEY INITIATION AREA
OF TSRAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT
OR SPREAD DURING NIGHT ACROSS NW KS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO AREA BY MIDNIGHT FROM CO.

MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH MID AREA OF COUNTRY BETWEEN BIG UPPER
LOW OVER MT/CANADA BORDER AND WESTERN EDGE OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM TX
PANHANDLE NE THRU CEN KS TO MN. WEAK S/WS MOVING ACROSS AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST WHICH KICK OFF SIG TSRA ACTIVITY AS THEY APPROACH DEEP
MOISTURE. MODELS NOT DOING WELL ON PICKING UP TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF S/WS MASKED IN VERY DRY AIR. WILL LEAN TOWARD AVN...BUT IN
REALITY A MIX...FOR MODEL TO FOLLOW.

TIMING PROBLEMS NOW ENHANCED/SHARPENED TO NW OF FRONT BY INCREASING
UPSLOPE (NE-E) LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND
FRONT. TONIGHT MODELS SHOWING THETAE RIDGE TO EXTEND A FINGER
WESTWARD OVER NW KS INTO FAR E CO...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 06Z-15Z.
70H S/W TO PASS OVER CWA DURING SAME TIME PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TSRAS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KANORADO ON KS/CO LINE
EAST TO VCNTY OF HILL CITY WITH EMPHASIS OF ACTIVITY DURING ABOVE
PD. WILL PROBABLY START WITH SOME SEVERE AND AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
TREND TOWARD MCS AND MORE WIDESPREAD/GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS INCREASING LATE AND MODELS SHOW .75 TO
1.00 VALUES COMMON AT THAT TIME IN AREA NOTED. WILL LESSEN TO CHANCE
POPS FROM NE BORDER NORTH AND IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PTN CWA. OF COURSE
ALL DEPENDS ON POSITION AND TRACK OF VORT AND RESULT
MCS.

MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY SLOW TO MOVE EAST OUT OF AREA WED SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA IN LOW
LEVELS WED EVENING AND ANOTHER S/W. HOWEVER LOOKS DRIER BY THEN AS
UPPER LOW (CENTERED NEAR ND/CANADA BORDER) MOVES EAST WITH SOUTH
AXIS MOVING THROUGH PLAINS PUSHING MOIST AIR FURTHER EAST. SO WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WEDS EVENING. THU AM SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE/RIDGE SE INTO AREA FROM MT...BOTH DRYING AND COOLING AREA.
LOWEST TEMPS OF WEEK/PD STILL LOOK TO BE FRI AM WITH SOME AREAS
DROPPING INTO 40S.

UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AREA FRI/SAT AND RIDGE TO WEST
BEGINS TO BUILD AND MOVE INTO PLAINS AREA. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE
TSRAS SAT AS S/W STILL INDICATED TO COME SE THROUGH HALTING RIDGE NW
FLOW. WARMUP BEGINS SUN WITH PC SKIES AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL.
BY TUE WARM-TO-HOT PM TEMPS IN 90S AND S/W APPROACHING BRINGS RETURN
OF TSRA CHANCES.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC