Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2002

FORECAST FOCUS IS EXTENT OF HOT...RECORD SETTING HIGHS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.

TON...FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY EVENING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE 850/700 THTE-E AXIS SETS UP
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
BREEZY/WINDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND CHANCES OF PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.

SAT/SAT NGT...SURFACE LOW REORGANIZES TOWARD CENTRAL WYOMING AS
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO WINDY CATEGORY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS RUNNING
ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE CIN VALUES ARE LESS
THAN 20 G/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 9 C/KM. WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS GOING FOR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH...OTHERWISE DRY AND FEW CLOUDS. WILL GO WITH HIGHS
AROUND 101 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUN/SUN NGT...SURFACE LOW MOVES LITTLE...REMAINING IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN IT PULL OUT AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTH DAKOTA. TRAILING COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. DESPITE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIFT IS MINIMAL TIL 00Z TIME FRAME WHEN SOME WEAK
LIFT IS FORECAST ALONG THE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED WORDING. SUN
NGT APPEARS DRY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS...AROUND 101 AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

MON/MON NGT...COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AS IT DOES WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT MOISTURE LIMITED SO NO POPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY AGAIN AROUND
101 WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S.

THE EXTENDED PERIODS (TUE-FRI)...CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND UPPER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE EAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING FIRM AT THE SURFACE. SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MRF INDICATING UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHINESS OVER THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AN INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT PRECIP...LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. MRF QPF LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
RETURN FLOW SO WILL LEAVE IT FOR THE WESTERN ZONES.

.GLD...NONE.

DDT