Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2002

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW TAKING PLACE FROM PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
HOWEVER SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE TREND BACK TO SOME AMPLIFICATION
ALONG WEST COAST. SLOW MOVING AND DISORGANIZED UPPER SYSTEM OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF CWFA THAT IS
PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER MOST OF
CWFA. HOWEVER...PROBLEM IS AS YESTERDAY IN GETTING ALL THE PARAMETERS
OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WORKING TOGETHER IN THE SAME
PLACE. THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ON ALMOST EVERY SIDE YESTERDAY...AND
LEAVING CWFA IN BIG DRY SLOT.

AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...ALL INITIALIZED ABOUT THE SAME WITH A
SLIGHT EDGE GIVEN TO THE AVN OVER THE ETA. AT SURFACE AND 850 MB...
ETA LOOKS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE...ESPECIALLY ON BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
CWFA AT THIS TIME. BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH AND NOT
STRONG ENOUGH WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DUE TO CURRENT WIND SPEEDS
AND DIRECTION. MODELS WERE MOIST AT 850 OVER AREA AND ANYWHERE FROM 2
TO 4 C TOO COOL. WILL TEND TO BLEND THE ETA AND AVN WITH MORE WEIGHT
GIVEN TO THE ETA AT LOWER LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE DECENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN BY LAPS DATA. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR
THUNDER. GOING BY THE ETA...BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY HALF WAY THROUGH
CWFA BY 00Z. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS STEELING MOISTURE ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OKAY. WILL ALSO HAVE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. BASED ON MODEL DATA...BEST OF ALL PARAMETERS ARE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. HOWEVER...ETA KAIN-FRITSCH...AFTER
DEVELOPING THUNDER OVER ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA BY 00Z...KEEPS
GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
SO WHAT TO DO. WILL PUT CHANCE FOR EVERYONE.

DRIER WITH RIDGING ON TUESDAY. NGM MOS LOOKS TO COOL AND WILL GO
WITH WARMER ETA/AVN.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. BOUNDARY GETS DRAPED OVER CWFA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT EXIT REGION OF JET MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION SINCE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE NOT THERE YET. ALL GUIADANCE ABOUT THE SAME
AND WILL GO NEAR TO FOR MAXES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA AS DYNAMICS MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN.
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE DAY BEFORE AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MODELS DOING WELL THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEY
WERE NOT LOW ENOUGH WITH HEIGHTS AND STRONG ENOUGH WITH CURRENT
SYSTEM SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AND
THEIR TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. TREND WAS FOR MODELS TO BE WEAKER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE BOUNDAY
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SO WILL
HAVE CHANCE IN THROUGH SUNDAY AND DRY ON MONDAY. WILL START OUT HOT
AND THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER