Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1230 PM MDT WED SEP 4 2002

HEAT AND POPS ARE THE PROBLEMS FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WILL LEAN TO GFS AND GFS-DOMINATED ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED
ON 12Z INITIALIZATION COMPARED TO RAOBS...PIREPS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  GFS WAS CLOSER TO OBSERVATIONS WITH CLOSED LOW OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND ITS SOUTHWEST EXTENSION UPPER TROUGH.  GFS WAS
ALSO BETTER WITH ITS LOWER LEVEL MASS AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS...
THOUGH A LITTLE MOIST.  RADICAL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS THE SMALL
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX NEAR POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA AND ITS LITTLE
WHIRLS OF ENERGY AND THE IMPACT THOSE WILL HAVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER.

FOR MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PLAY THE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN 2 METER
AND 850 MB TEMPS.  FOR MIN TEMPS WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN 2 METER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AND THE TOUGH TO
BEAT MAV MINS...WITH A LOT OF WEIGHT GOING TO THE MAV.

WEAK AND WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SO MINIMAL POPS OF 10 LOOK REASONABLE.

RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENTS FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.  TOO DRY
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS TO MENTION PRECIP CHANCES.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY SATURDAY TO WEST HALF OF AREA WITH
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO DECREASE.  WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
TRIGGER WILL NEED GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SET OFF CONVECTION...
AND LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO MAY GET JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HIGH BASED STORMS.  EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THOUGH...POPS
LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 5 TO 10 RANGE FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

GFS WANTS TO BRING BROAD CIRCULATION OF NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUTT
INTO OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY...PLACING MY PORTION OF THE WORLD IN
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AS RIDGE AXIS GETS PINCHED.  STILL LOOKING AT
SINGLE DIGIT POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH MOISTURE BUILDING UP...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE...AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
NORTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE.  ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO...NO
PROG HAS DONE WILL WITH FORECASTING THE LONGITUDE WHERE AN EASTERLY
WAVE TURNS NORTH THIS SUMMER...SO MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  IF THE TUTT
COMES CLOSER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY GFS MY MAX TEMPS WILL BUST
15 TO 25 DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE.

EXTENDED RANGE ENSEMBLE SUGGEST A NOISY WAVE 5 PATTERN WITH THE
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 7.  TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TIME DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED.  JUST WHEN THE PACIFIC
FRONT AND ITS PRECIP...IF ANY...ACTUALLY MOVES THOUGH THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 12Z MONDAY AND 18Z TUESDAY WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS.  ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT TIME OF FROPA HAS 18 HOUR ERROR BARS ON
IT.

.GLD...NONE.

ENTWISTLE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-050600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT WED SEP 4 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST
LATE TODAY AND COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH. HOWEVER...SINCE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXISTS
ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

FOR YOUR INFORMATION THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN GOODLAND WILL BE SENT
USING A NEW IDENTIFIER ON THE FIRST OF OCTOBER.  THE NEW IDENTIFIER
IS...

WMO HEADER: FLUS43 KGLD
AWIPS ID:   HWOGLD

STARTING THE FIRST OF OCTOBER ALL NWS OFFICES WILL ISSUE A DAILY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK USING THIS NEW IDENTIFIER. THE GOODLAND
OFFICE WILL ISSUE THE OUTLOOK EVERY MORNING BY 6 AM MOUNTAIN TIME.
A SECOND OUTLOOK WILL BE SENT BY 1045 AM MOUNTAIN TIME BETWEEN MAY
FIRST AND SEPTEMBER THIRTIETH WHICH WILL UPDATE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

ALTHOUGH THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL EMPHASIZE EVENTS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS...ANY SIGNIFICANT HAZARD EXPECTED WITHIN 7 DAYS
WILL BE DISCUSSED.