Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2002

AT 20Z...COOL FRONT STRETCHES FROM MINNESOTA INTO EXTREME SW
NEBRASKA...THEN BACK INTO NORTHERN COLORADO.  MEANWHILE...WEAK AFC
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS SE COLORADO.  THE RESULTANT WIND FIELD
ACROSS CWA IS A BIT CHAOTIC BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BUT SHOULD
TREND TOWARD A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM
COLORADO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS...AND COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY
PUSHING EAST OFF MOUNTAINS INTO OUR WESTERN CWA IS DEVELOPING IN AN
INVERTED VEE TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE...AND MARGINAL HAIL WITH STRONG
DOWNBURSTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SOME OF THE BETTER DEVELOPED STORMS.
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE SFC LOW AND IN SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRODUCING LARGER
HAIL AND LOCALLY DECENT RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.

MESOETA DEVELOPS A LARGE AREA OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SE PART OF OUR CWA AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.  THIS PRECIP AREA WILL THEN PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT.  WILL GO WITH BEST POPS IN THE SE AND
LOWER POPS IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG UPSLOPE AND BETTER JET DYNAMIC FORCING.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN FOR FRIDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE BULK OF SFC HIGH SETTLES IN LATER IN
THE DAY.  MESOETA CARRIES A DEEP LAYER OF HIGH RH FOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO THINK CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE A GOOD BET...ESP IN THE WEST.

MODELS INDICATE THAT SAT-SUN-MON SHOULD BE MORE SETTLED OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHARP SLOW MOVING RIDGE ALOFT HOLDING JUST
WEST. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THRU EXTENDED PERIOD...FEEL
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND APPROACHING SLOW
MOVING TROUGH WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR THE
AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL SIT IN THE WEST FOR AWHILE
WITH THE RIDGE LINE HOLDING TO OUR WEST...WHICH WOULD DELAY ONSET OF
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MRF TIMING...WHICH IS JUST
A TAD FASTER THAN EUROPEAN.

.GLD...NONE.

19/DLF

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-160000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SHARON SPRINGS TO HILL
CITY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SHARON
SPRINGS TO HILL CITY...DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

DURING THE EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY FROM GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO GRAND ISLAND
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING...SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM SHARON SPRINGS TO HILL CITY...DUE TO ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SHARON SPRINGS TO HILL CITY...THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

RUBIN