Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN WYOMING.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS WITH STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

TONIGHT? UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL WORK ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT? MODELS PROG SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN A REDUCED CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS JET DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL GO CLOSE TO WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY? MODELS PROG ZONAL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION
BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. AS A RESULT EXPECT AT
LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DAY 4 THROUGH 7 (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)? WILL MAKE NO CHANGES
FROM GOING FORECAST BASED ON PREVIOUS MRF AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS.
EXPECT TO HAVE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FLOW. WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL AS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S DURING THE DAY.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS

COZ090-091-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-NEZ079>081-250400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 634 EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 520
PM MDT (620 PM CDT) UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). THE WATCH IS
EFFECTIVE FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA.

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW.

IN FOR EAST COLORADO...YUMA AND KIT CARSON.

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...
SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...WALLACE...LOGAN AND GOVE.

HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND DO OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
800 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 PM    ABARR                     CO   .75 INCH HAIL
08/24/02   YUMA                           REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
905 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 PM    2 N VONA                  CO   .88 INCH HAIL
08/24/02   KIT CARSON                     REPORTED BY FIRE AND
                                          RESCUE.

COZ090-091-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-NEZ079>081-250445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1008 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2002

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 634 THAT HAS BEEN IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY THAT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

RJC