Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT SUN MAY 5 2002

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE/SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY MAX TEMPS.

SATL SHOWING ONCE AGAIN BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER PACIFIC TO THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. FAST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. DRY
LINE/TROF DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER WESTERN PORTION OF CWFA. AT JET LVL...
MODELS INITILIZED WELL EXCEPT FOR UNDERANALYZING SPEEDS OVER MONTANA.
AT 500 MB...MODELS INITIALIZE OKAY. HWVR...THE AVN WAS THE ONLY MODEL
TO CATCH SUBTLE VORT MAX MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
AT LOW LEVELS...ETA/AVN INITD THE BEST WITH THE ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER.
MODELS WERE A LITTLE COOL AT 850 THOUGH. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
ETA/AVN WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ETA DUE TO BETTER LOW
LEVEL INITIALIZATION.

FOR TON/MON...AT 00Z MODELS HAVE AREA IN LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...AND
KEEP IT IN THE SAME PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS LOOK TO
COME IN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MOISTURE/SFC PROFILE SUPPORT HAVING
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT IN EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WL GO
CHANCE AND MENTION OF SEVERE IN EASTERN COUNTIES WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS/TORNADO WATCH ALREADY IN THAT AREA. WILL HAVE
20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER REST OF CWFA. WL GO NR TO BLO TON WHERE
DRIER AIR IS AND ABOVE WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IS AT.

ETA/AVN HAVE LFQ NEAR ERN PORTION OF CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
A SHORTWAVE SNEAKING INTO THAT AREA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME DYNAMICS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PUTTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELD NOT THE MOST CONDUCIVE TO
WARMUP. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO BLO GUIDANCE.

FOR MON NIGHT/TUE...MODELS BRING IN A SHORTWAVE DURING THE NIGHT.
HWVR...AIR MASS IS TOO DRY ABOVE THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT PRECIP. LFQ
MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE COMING
IN FROM THE WEST. HWVR...MAIN DYANMICS LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. MODELS
BRING IN A BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z THEN THEY EITHER STALL
IT OR WASH IT OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NUMERICAL GUIADANCE IS VERY
WARM DESPITE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE WIND HELP. 850 AND 700 TEMPS REMAIN
RATHER WARM. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER NGM/AVN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.

FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...MODELS BRING A STRONGER BOUNDARY AND
SHORTWAVE IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH A WEAK LFQ MOVING INTO CO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WL PUT A MENTION A MENTION OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT...
AND HAVE IT DRY DURING THE DAY WITH MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. BIG DISCREPANCY ON 2M MAX TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH AVN MUCH COLDER. ETA 2M HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO
WARM IN THIS SCENARIO. WILL TEND TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE THE AVN TEMPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...ALL MODELS DOING REASONABLY WELL AT 12Z THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...ECWMF/UKMET APPEAR TO HAVE TROFINESS/HEIGHT
FIELD THE BEST IN THE WESTERN U.S.. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILIAR.
BUT LIKE THE ECMWF/UKMET THE BEST DUE TO THE UNCHANGING/AMLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC AND JET PROGS SUPPORTING LOWER HEIGHTS AND
TROFINESS. CHANCES OF PCPN LOOK TO BE ON WED WITH JET DYNAMICS/UPR
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY SAT/SUN WITH NEXT JET...
SHORTWAVE...AND BOUNDARY NEAR AREA.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION LBF.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER

KSZ003-004-015-016-029-060200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT SUN MAY 5 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #226 FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 9 PM CDT:

IN KANSAS...DECATUR...NORTON...GRAHAM...SHERIDAN...AND GOVE.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

&&

THEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
344 PM MDT SUN MAY 05 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0337 PM    BENKELMAN                 NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   DUNDY                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
444 PM MDT SUN MAY 05 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0443 PM    5 E TRENTON               NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   HITCHCOCK                      REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.