Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MDT SUN AUG 18 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE TIMING OF COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES EVERY OTHER DAY AS WELL AS RELATED TEMPERATURES.

18Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT LYING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHOWED A SLOW DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
700 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALREADY FIRING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RATHER CONSISTENT WITH POSITION
AND MOVEMENT OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT. AVN AND ETA MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING THE
BEST JOB WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING EASTWARD IN UPPER
FLOW. MESOETA STILL DOING BEST WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL STAY WITH MESOETA FOR BOTH PARAMETERS OUT THROUGH 48
HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING WITH AN AVN AND ETA COMBO.

FOR TONIGHT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT THROUGH THE GOODLAND AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. MODELS PROG SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE. WILL CARRY 30 POPS ALL ZONES. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH COOL TEMPS SOME 3 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

FOR MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND
STILL SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. A
LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. MODELS PROG MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS TO MOVE EAST IN UPPER FLOW. WILL CARRY 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS NIGHT FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MORE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS REGION IN UPPER FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF AREA RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MORE TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE INTO THE 60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN SHIFTING UPPER
FLOW. UPPER FLOW NOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECT WEATHER TO BE
DRY AND TRANQUIL. MODELS STILL PROG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD
FROM FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WELL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS