Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Grand Junction, CO

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
130 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2002

VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS LOW TOPPED HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  RAINFALL RATES WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING 1 INCH AN HOUR.  IN ADDITION...
ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN UTAH BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WX
WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.  COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MOVING INTO THIS
AREA...AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES DROPPING TO UNDER 10K...SO THREAT
FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL EVENTS APPEARS ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON.

PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS STARTED ITS SLOW TRACK
OUT OF THE REGION...BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL.  VERY MOIST 12Z SOUNDING AGAIN IN
KGJT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING AT 180% OF NORMAL...SO
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WILL
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP
SCATTERED CONVECTION RUNNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
COMING AROUND TO THE NORTH.  THIS SENDS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...
BRINGING AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION.
ETA/MESO-ETA RUNS THIS MORNING INDICATING A LITTLE RETURN MOISTURE
WORKING BACK INTO THE SAN JUANS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  FIRST RUN
SHOWING THIS...SO WL NOT INTRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR
NOW. ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED (SUN-THU...MODELS SHOW CONTINUITY FROM YESERDAY...EXCEPT
NOGAPS SEEMS OFF BASE SHOWING MUCH MORE AMPLITUDE. WILL FOLLOW THE
TREND OF GFS/EC. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGING IN RESPONSE TO A TROF
THAT DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
AND PUSHES TROF THROUGH NRN ROCKIES MON...WITH BAROCLINIC BAND
BRUSHING NRN MOUNTAINS OF OUR CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL SEND SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE P/C SKIES OVER OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE THE SOUTH WILL
BE MOSTLY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON-THU.  MC

.GJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT TONIGHT FOR WEST-CENTRAL
       AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO...EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, CO
316 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0145 PM    5 SW LA SAL               UT   .75 INCH HAIL
09/12/02   SAN JUAN                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, CO
445 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    URAVAN                    CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
09/12/02   MONTROSE                       REPORTED BY CO-OP
                                          OBSERVERS

JDC