Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Grand Junction, CO

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
255 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2002

ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS
A VIGOROUS SHRTWV SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  RADAR
RETURNED TO ACTION JUST AS STORMS WERE ENTERING OUR WESTERN MOST
CWA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3
JET NOW MOVING OVER THE REGION.  DEEP INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...
COMBINED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE ALL POINTING TO A RATHER
ACTIVE EVENING.  LINE IS FAIRLY SOLID FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH...WITH MORE TRAINING ECHOES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
ONCE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY MID-EVENING...EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY WITH CLEARING CONDS FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
EVENING.

ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
AGAIN FIRE A FEW STORMS.  MAIN LONG WAVE TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED.
MODELS INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM MOST
AREAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PD. JDC

(TUE-FRI)...WESTERLIES SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. PAC TROUGH THEN FORMS
ALONG WEST COAST AS AVN SLOWLY SHIFTS RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS...
RESULTING IN MORE SOUTHWESTLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A STRONG MONSOON PATTERN...BUT WITH NORTHERLY RETREAT OF
WESTERLIES DO BELIEVE WE WILL ALSO SEE GRADUAL NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE. THIS MAY BE AIDED THU-FRI IF RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. THUS...
WILL GO WITH DRY WX FOR TUE AND THEN INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF DIURNAL
TSTMS FROM WED ON. WARM TEMPS.  JAD

.GJT...NONE.