Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Grand Junction, CO

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
130 PM MDT SAT JUN 1 2002

IN THE NEAR TERM...WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING BELOW
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRY SLOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE CWFA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET FOR LACK UPPER SUPPORT. GRADIENT WINDS
PICKED UP AS EXPECTED...AND WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRING...AND STRONG CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL...WILL CONTINUE THE
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 700MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT
STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SOME
THICKNESS PACKING AND MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWFA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH POPS
WILL STILL BE SMALL. COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NW CWFA WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER 700MB TEMPS WILL BE.
NOT AS MUCH CONCERN REGARDING FIRE WEATHER SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND...
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND LESS CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.

WILL FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH FOR THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE CWFA. COOLER
BUT NOT AS DRAMATIC AS MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. TAL

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: TROF PASSAGE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
POPS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEW GFS IS NOT AS DEEP/COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUN INDICATING THE AVN REMAINS CONFUSED WITH THIS TROPA AND
BEYOND. OTHER MODELS SLOWER...WITH THE EC CONSISTENT WITH A
SPLITTING SOLUTION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINING CUTOFF OVER
YUMA. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL TRIM BACK TUESDAY POPS ESPECIALLY IN
UTAH, AND INDICATE LESS COOLING. FOR WED-THU-FRI-SAT...TEMPS QUICKLY
RECOVER (T7 10-15-16C) AS FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO NM/AZ. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN MTNS
ASSUMING YUMA CLOSED-LOW MAY PROVIDE A SOUTHERN MOISTURE FETCH. WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE DETAIL BEYOND THURSDAY.  RAMEY

.GJT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH.