Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Grand Junction, CO

478 
RWUS32 KGJT 222316
FFSGJT
COC085-UTC037-230030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
513 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEAST SAN JUAN AND WESTERN MONTROSE
COUNTIES IN REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST SAN JUAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES UP TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WERE PREVALENT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
HAD MOVED INTO OPEN COUNTRY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 46 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
191. AS THIS STORM MOVED OVER THE HANG DOG FIRE COMPLEX VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH DEEP WERE
REPORTED.

MEANWHILE...DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATED AMOUNTS UP
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WERE FALLING FROM THUNDERSTORM CELLS NORTHWEST
OF URAVAN.

ALL OF THESE STORMS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT
WAS VARIABLE AS STORMS CONTINUED TO COMBINE AND REGENERATE OVER THE
AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND
ARROYOS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY.  IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NL

913 
RWUS32 KGJT 222326 CCA
FFSGJT
COC085-UTC037-230030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN JUAN AND WESTERN MONTROSE
COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST SAN JUAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES UP TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WERE PREVALENT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
HAD MOVED INTO OPEN COUNTRY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 46 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
191. AS THIS STORM MOVED OVER THE HANG DOG FIRE COMPLEX VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH DEEP WERE
REPORTED.

MEANWHILE...DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATED AMOUNTS UP
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WERE FALLING FROM THUNDERSTORM CELLS NORTHWEST
OF URAVAN.

ALL OF THESE STORMS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT
WAS VARIABLE AS STORMS CONTINUED TO COMBINE AND REGENERATE OVER THE
AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND
ARROYOS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY.  IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NL

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1245 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002

SURFACE DEW PTS OF 50+ DEGREES AND PW INCREASING FROM NMEX WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER SAN JUAN MTNS..UNCOMPAHGRE AND AREAS SOUTH
OF DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS. ONE SPOTTER S OF DRO REPORTED 3/4 OF
AN INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MIN. ANALYSIS AND RUC SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING BETWEEN NE NMEX AND SE UT HELPING PRODUCT SE WINDS OF 10-
20 MPH ASSISTING IN THE MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE 4-CRNRS. MODELS
DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS MOISTURE SURGE WITH ACTUAL SFC DEW PT
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN THE ETA AND WETTER AVN PROGGED DATA. TWO VORT
MAXES ADDING TO THE CONVECTIVE MIX. ONE OVER NE AZ SPREADING CI
CLOUDS SHIELD OVR SE UT AND SW CO. SECOND VORT OVER NE NMEX SLIDING
TO WSW AROUND BOTTOM OF CO HIGH AND ASSISTING CONVECTION OVER CNTRL
AND WRN NMEX ALONG WITH LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED
FCST FOR THIS AFTNS TSTMS AND BLV ENUF THINGS HEADING TOWARD AND
ALREADY OVER SW CO TO INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THEM
LATER THIS EVENING.

TUE...HIGHER MODEL PW AND SFC DEW PTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
CO/UT BORDER WITH AVN AVERAGED 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ETA. MODEL
TIME/HTS SHOW PEAK MOISTURE AT 12Z TUE WITH DRYING THRUOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT 4-CRNRS DRIES OUT MOST SLOWLY WITH LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.  WILL CARRY HIR POPS OVER SRN
CO/SERN UT TUE...LOWER OVER REST OF CWA...THO WILL EDGE THEM UP
FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGH WOBBLES OVER THE AREA THRU WED AND THO BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST ENUF
FOR LOW GRADE AFTN/EVNG TSTMS IN THE MTNS. HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA THUR WITH LITTLE CHG IN THE AIRMASS...BUT AVN SHOWS TWO VORT
MAXES /WITH PROBABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/ RIDING OVER NE UT AND NW
CO THU AFTN.  CJC

EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...LATEST MRF NOW SHOWING A FLATTER WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WL SUPPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED MTN
CONVECTION...WHICH WE CAN COVER WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW.  RDG STARTS TO
REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK...
WITH THE RDG AXIS SETTING UP NEAR THE UTAH/COLORADO STATE LINE.
CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. JDC

.GJT...NONE.