Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Grand Junction, CO

780 
RWUS32 KGJT 020022
FFSGJT
COC067-020245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 PM MDT TUE OCT 1 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL LA PLATA COUNTY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8:45 PM MDT...

AT 6:00 PM MDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE
MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAD EXITED NORTH OF
THE AREA ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR. HOWEVER...AT 6:10 PM LA PLATA
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT SEVERAL DRAINAGES FROM THE
MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN AREA CONTINUED TO BRING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
COUNTY ROAD 250 EAST OF AN AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR TRIMBLE TO
HERMOSA. AS A RESULT...COUNTY ROAD 250 REMAINS CLOSED AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FLOODING ABATES...OR UNTIL
8:45 PM.

NL

157 
RWUS32 KGJT 020144
FFSGJT
COC067-020245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
742 PM MDT TUE OCT 1 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL LA PLATA COUNTY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8:45 PM MDT...

AT 7:30 PM MDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE MISSIONARY
RIDGE BURN AREA. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTH AT CLOSE TO
40 MPH...SO ITS UNLIKELY THAT RAIN WILL LAST LONG. MEANWHILE...LA
PLATA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT FLOODING WAS
CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF COUNTY ROAD 250 EAST OF AN AREA
STRETCHING FROM NEAR TRIMBLE TO HERMOSA. AS A RESULT...COUNTY ROAD
250 REMAINS CLOSED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL FLOODING ABATES...OR UNTIL 8:45 PM.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR AT NIGHT. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT
NIGHT SINCE IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS.
USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND STREAMS...CREEKS OR DRAINAGE DITCHES.
TAKE THE SHORTEST PATH TO REACH HIGHER GROUND...BUT DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH RISING WATER.

NL

094 
RWUS32 KGJT 020242
FFSGJT
COC067-020315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
842 PM MDT TUE OCT 1 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL LA PLATA COUNTY ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...

AT 8:40 PM MDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN SITE HAD AGAIN MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. LA
PLATA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT FLOODING ALONG COUNTY
ROAD 250 HAS ENDED...CLEAN UP IS LARGELY COMPLETE AND THE ROAD HAS
BEEN REOPENED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NL

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 PM MDT TUE OCT 1 2002

LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT BASIN BEHAVING JUST ABOUT AS EXPECTED. IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN TO SSE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TURN NE WED AND WED NGT. CURRENTLY NOSE OF JET MOVING INTO SRN CO
FROM NMEX WITH UPLIFT IN LEFT-FRONT QUAD HELPING TO GENERATE
CONVECTION OVER SAN JUANS AND SE UT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AND SPREAD NORTH OVER CO OVERNIGHT.

LOW SHOULD MOVE BODILY OVER THE AREA WED AFTN AND WED NGT SO HAVE
GONE WITH SIGNIFICANT POP ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY
LATE WED NGT IN THE MTNS. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD LOWER TO 7000 FEET AT
LEAST BY EARLY THUR MORNING. TROF SHOULD CLEAR TO EAST THURS NGT
WITH NW FLOW AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING IN FRI AND FRI NGT. CLDS
AND PCPN SHOULD SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE NORTH FRI NGT WITH ANOTHER
GOOD TROUGH COMING INTO THE AREA SAT...IF THE NEW AVN IS TO BE
BELIEVED.   CJC

EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...THE CWFA LOOKS TO BE UNDER A LARGE BROAD TROF
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY TROF PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...JUST A LITTLE
DIFFERENT ON TIMING. THE UKMET IS INITIALLY PLACES A CLOSED 500 MB
TROF OVER SRN CA BY SUN OOZ. THE MRF COMES ON BOARD WITH A SIMILAR
SOLUTION BY MON 00Z, WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE BASE OF THE TROF AS AN
OPEN WAVE. ALL MODELS, EXCEPT THE AVN, RESORTS BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE
BEFORE MOVING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO. THE AVN IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BY
FAR WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER WRN CO BY SUN 12Z.

UPPER LEVEL (500 MB) TEMPERATURES COMING INTO THE REGION WITH THE
TROF AXIS WILL BE QUITE COLD...RANGING FROM -16C IN THE SOUTH TO
-26C IN THE FAR NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN A
DEEP MOISTURE FIELD. DECREASING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST EARLY
ON SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL STRENGTH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SUNDAY A
LITTLE UNSETTLED. CLEARING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
FRESH INFUSION OF COLD AIR.  BA

.GJT...NONE.