Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Grand Junction, CO

847 
RWUS32 KGJT 182155
FFSGJT
COC067-182245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
347 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
LA PLATA COUNTY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN LA PLATA 
COUNTY BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM MDT...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF 
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS THE MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN 
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR ONE QUARTER IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME 
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS 
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS 
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL 
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.
$$
TAL

750 
RWUS32 KGJT 182303
FFSGJT
COC067-182315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
500 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEAST LA PLATA COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR 
NORTHEAST LA PLATA COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
EVENING. PERSONS LIVING IN AND NEAR THE MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN AREA 
SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR FLASH 
FLOODING OR DEBRIS FLOWS IF RAINFALL OCCURS IN THE AREA. 
$$

TAL

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2002

COLD UPPER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER OUR CWFA AND PRODUCING ENHANCED
PRECIP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. PRESENTLY SOME CONCERN FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER COAL
SEAM BURN AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR...GAGES...SAT
IMAGERY. OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR LATER TODAY IS FOR
MISSIONARY BURN AREA AS SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH. RADAR AND SATELLITE APPEAR TO SUPPORT MODEL TIMING AND
POSITION OF FRONT/UPPER TROUGH.  SO WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTIVE RELATED RAINFALL ON THE MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN AREA DURING
THE NOON TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.  PRESENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT IN ANY AREA THROUGH TODAY WILL PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLOODING.

SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR 10.5K MSL SOUTHERN ZONES BEHIND
FRONT AND NEAR 9K NORTHERN MOST ZONES TODAY...THOUGH COULD
TEMPORARILY LOWER ANOTHER 1000 FEET WITH CONVECTION.  SHOULD NOT
RECEIVE MORE THAN 4 INCHES TOTAL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOCAL
SPOTS...MAINLY ABOVE 11K MSL COULD PICK UP MORE THAN 6 INCHES.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...PRECIP...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT OUR CWFA TODAY.  EXPECTED MAX
OF 66 AT GJT COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM...THOUGH IN THE BALL PARK.

TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LINGERING PRECIP CONFINED
TO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. DESPITE COLDEST AIR FROM TROUGH TO BE OVER US TONIGHT...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND RATHER HIGH RH VALUES TONIGHT OUGHT TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS FROM REACHING FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN
THE GUNNISON AREA.

DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW INSTABILITY
SHOWERS MAINLY IN AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.  ALTHOUGH
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THROUGHOUT OUR CWFA DUE TO
SOME SOLAR INPUT.

FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OVER OUR CWFA AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.  THEN A MINIMAL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE CONTINUE DRY DURING THAT PERIOD...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAN IS INDICATED IN THE LATEST MRF.
PRINGLE

.GJT...NONE.

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-182130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
605 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2002

...SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AT
SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE SNOW TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS BORDER AREA BY MIDDAY.
THE MAIN SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE TEN THOUSAND FOOT
LEVEL IN MOST AREAS TODAY...THOUGH IT COULD TEMPORARILY BE AS LOW AS
THE 7500 FOOT LEVEL THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE THE NINE THOUSAND FOOT LEVEL IN WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT.

PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS HIGH ELEVATION ROADS AND MOUNTAIN
PASSES THROUGH TODAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY SLICK AND SLUSHY
ROADS.

LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A
HALF INCH WITHIN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND
SMALL STREAMS COULD OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATED FORECASTS REGARDING THIS STORM SYSTEM.

PRINGLE