Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Grand Junction, CO

661 
RWUS32 KGJT 102058
FFSGJT
COC067-102300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
252 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LA PLATA COUNTY UNTIL 815
   PM MDT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

AS OF 245 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED AROUND ONE
HALF INCH OF RAIN AT VALLECITO RESERVOIR. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE FALLEN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE RESERVOIR.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS
ARE LIKELY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND THE MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN AREA.

RESIDENTS AND RECREATIONISTS IN THIS AREA ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME
CAUTION AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

AVERY

847 
RWUS32 KGJT 102352
FFSGJT
COC067-110115-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
551 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LA PLATA COUNTY UNTIL 815
   PM MDT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

AS OF 545 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED AROUND ONE
INCH OF RAIN AT GRASSY MOUNTAIN SOUTH OF THE VALLECITO RESERVOIR.
THE GAUGE AT VALLECITO RESERVOIR HAS RECORDED NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE INCH HAVE FALLEN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE RESERVOIR.

TODAYS RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN MUD FLOWS ON COUNTY ROAD 501 SOUTH
OF VALLECITO WHICH MADE IT IMPASSABLE. HOWEVER...COUNTY OFFICIALS
HAVE REPORTED THAT THOSE FLOWS HAVE BEEN CLEANED UP AND THE ROAD HAS
REOPENED.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE LIKELY IN STEEP
TERRAIN AND THE MISSIONARY RIDGE BURN AREA.

RESIDENTS AND RECREATIONISTS IN THIS AREA ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME
CAUTION AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

TGJT

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
214 PM MDT TUE SEP 10 2002

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMICS COMING
INTO PLAY.  WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS.  COLD
ENOUGH AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS TO SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAJORITY OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN AS TEMPS WILL SHOW
LITTLE DIURNAL SPREAD TONIGHT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON
TAP AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. MOVES LITTLE.
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ANY MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW
TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

MODELS STILL KEYING ON THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT ON THURSDAY...
BRINGING YET MORE ENERGY TO THE REGION FOR A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED (FRI-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN EMBEDDED OPEN
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEST COAST
RIDGE ON FRI AND EARLY SAT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
TROF PASSES ON SATURDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
CONSIDERABLY DRIER. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DOMINATE MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. BY TUE ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...BUT LOOKS TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA BY WED. CURRENT PACKAGE COVERS ALL OF
THIS, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BA

.GJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
       COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-101800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
841 AM MDT TUE SEP 10 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST UTAH...

AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST UTAH...WERE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STEEP TERRAIN AND AREAS BURNED
BY WILDFIRES WILL ESPECIALLY BE AFFECTED BY THE RAINFALL...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND MUD FLOWS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN AND
AROUND BURNED AREAS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY.