Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Grand Junction, CO

764 
RWUS32 KGJT 292002
FFSGJT
COC067-292100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
155 PM MDT THU AUG 29 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN LA PLATA 
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 145 PM OFFICIALS IN LA PLATA COUNTY REPORTED FLOODING AND SEVERAL 
DEBRIS SLIDES NEAR THE VALLECITO DAM AREA. SOME OF THE WORST 
FLOODING WAS IN THE STEVENS CREEK DRAINAGE NEAR THE 6000 BLOCK OF 
COUNTY ROAD 250.

ADDITIONAL FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG JACK...SHEARER...AND RED 
CREEKS. MANY DRAINAGE DITCHES AND CULVERTS WERE OVERFLOWING.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER VERY CLOSELY AND 
BE PREPARED TO RAPIDLY MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. STAY TUNED TO YOUR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL REPORTS...OR MONITOR THE SITUATION FROM 
THE GRAND JUNCTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE).


$$

TGJT

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
230 AM MDT THU AUG 29 2002

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO EJECT NORTH-
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. JET NOSING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CWFA. SO FAR...RAINFALL LIGHT BUT WINDS GUSTY AS
MID-LEVELS STILL RATHER DRY. DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE COME UP FROM
YESTERDAY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...EXTENDING NORTH TO THE GRAND VALLEY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NOT ALL THUNDERSTORMS TO BE DRY.
NONETHELESS...FIRE WEATHER STILL A MAJOR CONCERN WITH WATCH ALREADY
IN PLACE APPEARING WELL WARRANTED. WILL LET DAY SHIFT SETTLE DETAILS
OF POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING.

PRESENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND JET INFLUENCE TO BE THE STORY TODAY. GIVEN
DEWPOINT FIELD ALLUDED TO ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH BEST POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND APPEARS MET DATA HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION.

WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT SOME LINGERING
EVENING CONVECTION...THEN DRY AND CLEARING DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. DRIER...SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSOLATION WILL
LIKELY YIELD SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MET
GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLVING PATTERN.
LITTLE CHANGE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. NL

EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...AVN HAS REMNANTS OF WESTERN TROF LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE...WHILE UPPER HIGH REMAINS
OVER NRN MEXICO/SRN NM THROUGH PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF
SWLY FLOW UNTIL THEN BASED ON AVN WITH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ENTRAINED ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND THUS WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW ON SUN-MON ASSUMING ALSO SOME
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR TUE AS
TROUGH LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...ECWMF SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY WITH TROUGH NOW FARTHER WEST IMPLYING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION.  JAD

.GJT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY FROM 1100 THROUGH 2200 MDT
       FOR ALL FIRE WX ZONES IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-292130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
640 AM MDT THU AUG 29 2002

THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOME STORMS WILL BE DRY...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 50 MPH WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO.

THE COMBINATION OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED STATE OF AWARENESS
TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF WILDFIRES.

NL