Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Grand Junction, CO

355 
RWUS32 KGJT 062339
FFSGJT
COC045-077-070030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
539 PM MDT TUE AUG 6 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6:30 PM MDT FOR NORTHEAST
MESA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST GARFIELD COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AFFECTING INTERSTATE 70 AND THE
CITIES OF DE BEQUE...PARACHUTE...RIFLE...NEW CASTLE AND GLENWOOD
SPRINGS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH
OF RIFLE AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF
YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS.

AS OF 530 PM MDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND
STREET FLOODING IN NEW CASTLE. ALSO...IN NORTHEAST MESA COUNTY AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED ONE FOOT OF WATER FLOWING
OVER HIGHWAY 65...JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND
JUNCTION.

$$
CUOCO

478 
RWUS32 KGJT 070034
FFSGJT
COC045-077-070045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
634 PM MDT TUE AUG 6 2002

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEAST MESA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
GARFIELD COUNTY EXPIRED AT 630 PM MDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVED NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA. ONLY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG INTERSTATE 70 FROM DE BEQUE TO
GLENWOOD SPRINGS UNTIL ABOUT 7:00 PM MDT. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OR
MUD SLIDES ARE EXPECTED.
$$

CUOCO

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MDT TUE AUG 6 2002

MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUES WITH HEAVY RAINERS FORMING.  WINDS ALOFT
ARE SLOWER THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING SLOWER CELL MOVEMENT.  WITH
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.. HAVE
ALREADY EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE AIR MASS IS A LITTLE DRIER ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.. THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS CHANGES IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN BEGIN.  THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME IS GRADUALLY
ERODING AWAY.  THE CULPRIT IS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH THAT IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THIS WILL SHUNT THE PLUME EASTWARD.  THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE PLUME IN THE MORNING..
BUT BY AFTERNOON.. MODEL DATA SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE NEAR THE UTAH
AND COLORADO BORDER AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  EXPECT LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.. ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS WILL REMAIN PRIME TO HEAVY RAIN
FROM THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN AND SOUTHWARD.. SO PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST THEME THERE.

LATEST AVN MODEL RUN SHOWS PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH BECOMING A
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER YELLOWSTONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ETA
SHOWS THIS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.. BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS PLACES THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE DRY SLOT.  GOODBYE MONSOONAL PLUME
WITH SOME GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONE.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN.. MAINLY THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  FRISBIE

EXTENDED (FRI-TUE)...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS LATEST
MONSOONAL BURST. THE 00Z MRF AND 06Z AVN HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS TO THE TROF THAT SKIRTS OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON THAT DAY.
THE MRF KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WHILE
THE AVN FORECASTS A CLOSED LOW THAT IS CLOSER TO THE CWA. EITHER
WAY, THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.

BY SATURDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
THIS SHOULD PUT US BACK IN A MONSOONAL BREAK. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD SUPPLY THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE NONE. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND DRY UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW.  BA

.GJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
     MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, CO
226 PM MDT TUE AUG 6 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    6NW GATEWAY               CO   FLASH FLOODS
08/06/02   MESA                           SHEEP CREEK OUT OF ITS
                                          BANKS. 6-8 FEET OF WATER
                                          ACROSS ROAD TO GATEWAY.
                                          RANCHERS STRANDED.REPORTED
                                          BY SPOTTERS

BA