Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Grand Junction, CO

441 
RWUS32 KGJT 242245
FFSGJT
COC067-242300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL LA PLATA
COUNTY...

AT 445 PM MDT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR EAST CENTRAL LA PLATA COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST OF THE WARNED AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN LA PLATA AND EASTERN
MONTEZUMA COUNTIES.

CJC

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
242 AM MDT WED JUL 24 2002

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LINGERING ACROSS LA PLATA AND
MONTEZUMA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
EXCEPT FOR THESE AREAS, WILL START THE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH FLATTENS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS UTAH
AND NORTHERN COLORADO, AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE IDENTIFYING ANY BOUNDARIES OR
SHORTWAVES THAT COULD FOCUS CONVECTION. FOR TODAY...MODELS BRING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS LOOK TOO FAST WITH THIS IDEA BASED ON SURFACE OBS ACROSS UT,
WY, AND ID. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THOUGH AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...WITH LESS
OVERALL COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. SLOW MOVING STORMS AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BURNED AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/ASH FLOWS.

WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS WAVE FROM THE CONVECTION
OVER AZ LAST NIGHT...THEN MOVE IT AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH THURSDAY. THE AVN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER ETA POPS. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AND INCREASES THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE STORM MOTION AND LESSEN
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOME. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HIGHER
WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

ETA TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW. TAL

...EXTENDED (FRI-TUE)
WEAK TROF MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN REGION WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER CWA.
WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER
MTNS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY. AS TROF
MOVES EAST OF AREA ON MONDAY PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
WITH JET NORTH OF CWA. MODELS STILL DEPICTING SOME SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW SO HAVE KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MTNS AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. MPM

.GJT...NONE.