Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Hastings, NE

October 6, 2002Mitchell County, Kansas

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 6, 2002, 1:25 AM CDT for Mitchell County, Kansas. It was in force for 50 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 6, 2002, 1:25 AM CDT (06:25 UTC)
Expired
Oct 6, 2002, 2:15 AM CDT
In force
50 min
Issued by
NWS Hastings, NE
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Mitchell County, KS

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 6, 1:35 AM CDTHail 1.25Beloit, KS

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 229 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2002-10-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2002-10-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 171 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2274 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
345 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

154 
WUUS53 KGID 060625
SVRGRI
KSC123-060715-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
125 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 123 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF GLEN ELDER...OR ABOUT 36 MILES
  WEST OF CONCORDIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BELOIT AT 135 AM CDT
  ASHERVILLE AT 140 AM CDT
  SIMPSON AT 145 AM CDT

PEOPLE IN MITCHELL COUNTY SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES.

LAT...LON 3952 9847 3925 9845 3925 9794 3954 9790

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 5, 3:35 PM CDT, 9 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 5, 3:35 PM CDT, 9 hours 50 minutes before
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002

...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING WINDS AND FROST
POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT...

UPPER AIR DATA SUITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE SCALE
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCKED
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NOAM TROUGHING HIGHLIGHTED BY
TRAIN OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH SHEARED TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURING WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...TO ALONG THE
SD/NEB BORDER. MAX 18Z PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING IN CORRIDOR FROM
WESTERN SD INTO NORTHWEST NEB...WITH LEE TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER ALBERTA WILL PLUNGE THROUGH MONTANA AND QUICKLY
RACE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY PUSHING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES IN SPITE OF PLENTIFUL OVERALL FORCING. MAIN
STORY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH NW/N WINDS TO BE INCREASING BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AS FRONT EMBARKS UPON THE CWA.

ETA AND GFS BOTH DEPICT 40-45KT 850MB JET CORE TO SWEEP FROM NCNTRL
NEB INTO EASTERN NEB SUNDAY MORNING. INTENSE POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC
DOWNWARD MOTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE ETA PORTRAYED 290K-305K
SURFACES...WILL HELP REALIZE MUCH OF THESE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN
ALL...WIND ADVISORY CERTAINLY PRUDENT FOR THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...IF NOT THE ENTIRE NEBRASKA CWA. WILL
LIKELY ERROR OF THE SIDE OF GREATER NEB CWA COVERAGE GIVEN MASS
FIELDS AND LOCAL TENDENCIES. WOULD EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AT LEAST FOR A TIME...WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. IN GENERAL...PEAK WINDS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONFINED TEMPORALLY...AND WILL LIKELY BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
FILTERS IN.

GIVEN SURFACE HIGH...ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS...AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SCENARIO...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR FROST SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST
LIKELIHOOD IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER.

GRADUAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION MONDAY/TUESDAY AS ZONAL W/NW FLOW
SETTLES INTO MUCH OF THE LOWER 48.

IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...ACTIVE AND RATHER PROGRESSIVE
OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...
MODERATING W/SW FLOW REGIME TO PROMOTE TEMPS ABOVE/AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MOS MEMBERS
FAVORING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
CONTRARY TO COOLER OPERATIONAL FMR/MEX NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. IN THE
DETAILS...WILL FAVOR SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH PER LATEST EUROPEAN AND MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...
THEREFORE DRY FORECAST PERSISTS EVEN THROUGH DAY 7 AT THIS TIME. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SNEAK APPROACH OF
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AROUND THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME INTO THE KS CWA
PER LATEST GFS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION OAX...LBF AND TOP.

.GID...WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF NEBRASKA CWA.

GUYER
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 5, 10:35 AM CDT, 14 hours 50 minutes before
KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1035 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FROST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MONDAY MORNING.

T

The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 6, 1:25 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDMitchell50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.