Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

...STORM CHCS TONIGHT MAIN QUESTION...

SRN END OF SHARP UPR TROF IN ERN MANITOBA ACRS SD GENERATING LINE OF
CONVN OVR ERN SD INVOF OF SFC WV. SFC TROF AXIS THEN EXTENDED SW
INTO ERN CO. STG LL WAA HAD POPPED SMALL CONV CLUSTER NW IA
WITH ISOLD MID LVL CONVN ACRS NW KS WITHIN STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE
PLUME. ETA INITIALIZATION MUCH BTR THEN ITS 12HR PROG FM 00Z RUN BUT
STILL PLAYING CATCHUP. INTERESTING THAT 09Z SREF RUN FM YDA SHOWED
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON DEPTH/INTENSITY OF UPR TROF WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN REALIZED DEEPER MID/UPR LVL TROF. MOST APPARENT IS ITS
805MB TEMPS INITIALIZATION WHICH WAS OUT TO LUNCH.

SHRT TERM RELIANCE RESIDES WITH RUC20 CONV DVLPMNT ALG SFC TROF THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. HWVR LL MSTR THIS FAR W IS SPARSE AND SHALLOW AS
DENOTED BY MIXED OUT SUB 60 DEWPOINTS OVR WRN CWA EARLIER THIS AM.
FAR BTR SUB CLD MSTR PROFILE LIES THRU MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH
AFTN CONVN FVRD NE NEB AND IA. BEST CHC HERE RELEGATED TO NE/E HALF
OF CWA THIS EVENING AS MID LVL TROF AXIS SHIFTS OUT AND ABILITY OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND RESPONSE TO NUDGE SFC MOIST AXIS WWD...OTHERWISE
SFC BASED INHIBITION WILL WIN OUT AND NOTHING FIRES. ON MONDAY...POST
TROF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING COMBINED W/LL DOWNSLOPE WRLY COMPONENT
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WARM DY. SECONDARY WESTERLY WV OVR BC WILL
DRIVE SFC BNDRY SWD AND BRIEFLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUE. HWVR
LW TROF DVLPMNT ALG W COAST IN CONJUNCTION W/DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION THRU PLAINS WILL BRING ABOUT RTN OF WARM...DRY WX WED
ON.

IN THE EXTNDD...GFS DEPICTION OF NXT WEEKEND COOL DOWN AND INHERITED
POPS FRI NIGHT AND SAT CONTENTIOUS FOR SURE GIVEN MREF CONSENSUS OF
RETAINING LW TROF THRU WRN US JUST LIKE UKMO AND ECMWF DO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LG POSITIVE AND WARM HGT ANOMALY SITTING ACRS PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WITH CONTD WARM AND DRY WX. THE SUPPOSITION OF WRN TROF
PROGRESSING EWD AND POS HGT ANOMALY SHIFTING EWD DOES HOLD MERIT
BUT TIMING OF SUCH AT THIS JUNCTURE A FALLACY. HWVR FOR SAKE OF FCST
CONTINUITY AND AVOIDANCE OF FLIP FLOPPING WILL LEAVE SLIGHT MENTION
AS IS.

.GID...NONE.

TEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1101 PM CDT SUN SEP 01 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0722 PM    5 SW HILDRETH             NE   1 INCH HAIL
09/01/02   FRANKLIN                       REPORTED BY STORM CHASER.

0848 PM    1 ESE GIBBON              NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/01/02   BUFFALO                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0908 PM    2 W WOOD RIVER            NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/01/02   HALL                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0929 PM    GRAND IS                  NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/01/02   HALL                           REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
                                          NWS EMPLOYEE.