Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
210 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME IS WHEN/WHERE/IF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CROSS GID CWA.

00Z UA ANALYSES HAD NEB ON NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF SW U.S. RIDGING. SFC
ANALYSIS HAS EXTREMELY WEAK GRADIENT WITH WEAK RIDGING FROM OH
VALLEY TO SE COLORADO.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LEAVING WEAK SFC PATTERN ACROSS NEB/KS.
WITH NO BOUNDARIES AND NO NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET, WILL NEED UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE LIFT. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN STATES AND TURN FLOW TOWARD THE WSW INTO NEB. SWRN STATES
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE, THOUGH. SO TIMING OF FEATURES APPEARS
DIFFICULT.

TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF SUN NIGHT WITH TSTMS STAYING WELL N
OF GID CWA. WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING A LITTLE SOUTHWEST AND SOME
WEAK DIFFLUENCE OVER GID CWA, WILL CARRY MINOR POPS TUE NIGHT AND
WED NIGHT.

EXTENDED MODELS SEND NO MAJOR FEATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ONE MINOR WAVE SHOWN ON CANADIAN AND MRF
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TSTMS FRIDAY.

TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY ANY DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.GID...NONE.

SCHURR

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
531 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HOLD
STEADY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  IT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
ANOTHER ROUND MAY TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR
SOUTHEASTERLY PATH TONIGHT. A GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST IN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TOO STABLE TO YIELD THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING STORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SCHURR

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
652 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...AND AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM THE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THEREFORE SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE
NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HOLD
STEADY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  IT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL STORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

CMF