Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
239 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2002

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS ONE FRONT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH
ANOTHER DISCONTINUITY OF SOME TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS GENERALLY SLID EAST ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
WHILE OUR CWFA REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY TODAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM COLORADO IS ALREADY THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IN EASTERN COLORADO UP TO NEAR SIDNEY. THERE IS A
GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TARGET PER LATEST RUC AND JUST PREVIOUS THINKING. HOW FAR EAST
WILL THINGS DEVELOP? IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET APPEARS TO BE STRONG
COMPLEMENT FOR RAINFALL TODAY IN THE CWFA...MAXIMIZED FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING (SOUTH). CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF PANHANDLE CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN THE
TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. OUTFLOW WORKING INTO NORTHWEST
CWFA CURRENTLY MAY BE THE BOUNDARY NEEDED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
TO RIDE EAST TODAY AND INTO BETTER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST CWFA AND CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST. AS
MENTIONED...MAIN TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE LATE MORNING TO ABOUT 00Z.
FORECAST LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LIBEL
TO VERY LITTLE WITH COPIOUS CLOUD COVER. BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EVEN REMAINS WEST. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY OR AT LEAST VERY
ISOLATED IN OUR CWFA ATTM. CONTINUED THE THEME OF LINGERING RAINFALL
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE LETTING UP. SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL FOREGO ATTM.
DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. ETA ATTEMPTS AT OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SETTLE FOR SOME CLOUDS TO INCREASE
UNTIL SOME CONTINUITY IS ESTABLISHED.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO DAYS 4 THROUGH 7.

.GID...NONE.

MORITZ