Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

POPS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST CONCERNS.

STRONG AUGUST UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST MONTANA AND
INTENSIFYING AS PROGGED. FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BEND INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE CONVECTION THERE...AND ISOLATED STORMS
TRYING TO GO NEAR VALENTINE. MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WEAKEN AS WE
MOVE SOUTH...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS JUICY WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT. BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SEEM
TO BE EARLY EVENING FOCUS...WITH BEST SHOT WESTERN ZONES AS STORMS
DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING FROM PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ACTION SHOULD FIRE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...AND FRONT...LLJ AND UPPER WAVE TEAM TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWFA. HAVE INCLUDED HIGHER POPS THERE...AS OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
OF SOME INTEREST FOR BOTH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OF NOTE IS FORECAST
OF AREA OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN CWFA BY 06Z...
POSSIBLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATE HEAVY
RAINS.

MONDAY IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AS FRONT BISECTS REGION. HAVE INCLUDED
POPS ALL BUT WESTERN 5 ZONES. LINGERING LLJ AND FROPA WILL LEAD TO
ONGOING CONVECTION AT SUNRISE NORTHEAST/EAST ZONES...AND AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA...SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY...GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST CWFA TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST. AVN/NGM/ETA ALMOST UNIFORM IN
PLACING SURFACE FRONT FROM BEATRICE TO BELOIT BY 21Z...AND DO EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO REFIRE ALONG IT. KEPT THE CONTINUE SHOT OF
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FAR SOUTHEAST.

AM BANKING ON AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF
H5 TROUGH DOESNT SLIP THROUGH UNTIL LATE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
LOWER 80S...AND HAVE HELD AS SUCH...BUT GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS COOLER
70S MORE LIKELY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY WANT TO
ADJUST TO MORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES.

THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS STILL BRING FRONTS THE AREA WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF SUCCESS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE QUITE BOLD IN FROPA FOR THE
DAY 4 TIME FRAME...AVN JUST A GLANCING BLOW. ALL GENERALLY ADVERTISE
STRONG FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY A ROUND OF RAINFALL. FOR
NOW CONTINUITY IS BEST UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS CAN BE HAD. NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

.GID...NONE.

MORITZ

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM YORK TO SMITH CENTER AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON
TO GREELEY.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT
FORM IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT SURGES TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY RAPIDLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY TO SAINT PAUL.

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
907 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0829 PM    2 W WILSONVILLE           NE   .75 INCH HAIL
08/11/02   FURNAS                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0835 PM    7 W ELYRIA                NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/11/02   VALLEY                         NICKEL TO GOLFBALL SIZE
                                          HAIL COVERING THE
                                          GROUND. REPORTED BY
                                          STORM SPOTTER.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
946 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0920 PM    5 N ARCADIA               NE   .88 INCH HAIL
08/11/02   VALLEY                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0941 PM    ARCADIA                   NE   .75 INCH HAIL
08/11/02   VALLEY                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1018 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1016 PM    6 W PHILLIPSBURG          KS   1 INCH HAIL
08/11/02   PHILLIPS                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1034 PM    3 SE BOELUS               NE   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/11/02   HOWARD                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.