Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
246 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

WARM TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TSTM CHCS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED 120KT H3 JET ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
OVERALL FLOW WAS ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST US...AND A LOW IN THE FAR SOUTH.  SHORTWAVE
TROF TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING SFC BOUNDARY
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTN/EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA
WHILE WARM H7 TEMPS OF 14-16C SHLD INHIBIT STORMS TO THE WEST.  LATEST
SWODY1 HAS PLACED OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE WIND WITH HAIL A SECONDARY
CONCERN.  OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHLD BE RATHER WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F.

THE HOT TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF COOL FRONT.  ETA
H85 TEMP PROGS 28-33C E/W ACROSS THE CWA WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.  THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FCST WITH MAX TEMPS
100-105F.  AVN DEVELOPS PCPN WED NIGHT AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG
SOUTH...HOWEVER BELIEVE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL AGAIN SUPPRESS ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL THURSDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRANSLATES FURTHER
SOUTH...AND HEIGHTS LOWER...ALLOWING CAP TO WEAKEN.  WITH BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT AND NOW MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODELS WITH FRONTAL POSITION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL INCREASE POPS THURS NIGHT TO 30 PCNT.

AVN IS TRENDING WETTER WITH FCST INTO THE WEEKEND...SHOWING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROFS LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OF THIS AND
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  THE LATEST MRF HAS DONE AN ABOUT FACE WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUN SHOWING A MORE AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER IN THE
EXTENDED.  AT THIS POINT WILL NOT FLIP FLOP AND WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED
AS IS AND WATCH FOR LATER TRENDS.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY...TO GRAND ISLAND TO YORK
NEBRASKA.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL.

NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...AS WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS.

FAY