Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
120 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

...SVR THREAT THIS AFTN/EVE BIGGEST CONCERN...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TRIPLE POINT LOW NR YKN AND COLD FNT TRAILING SW
TO NR HLC. STILL WAITING FOR STG UPR TROF NOW INTO WRN SD TO CATCH
UP BUT UPR TROF AMPLIFYING NOW AND LEADING TO INTENSIFICATION OF JET
STREAK OVRHD. PREFNTL AIRMASS STILL APPARENTLY WEAKLY CAPPED ATTM BUT
RAPID DESTABILIZATION CONTS W/INITIATION IMMINENT. HWVR BNDRY HAS
PUSHED TO NR A HDE TO ORD LINE. UPSTREAM PRES RISES WOULD SUGGEST NRN
PORTION WILL MAKE FURTHER EWD PROGRESS BUT SRN PORTION SHLD BEGIN TO
TRAIL BEHIND...WHICH MAKES EVENING ZONE CUT DIFFICULT. ELEVATED CONVN
NOT HELPING MATTER EITHER ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAT BURST AT ODX
WHICH MAKES A CASE THAT CAPPING INVERSION IS AS YET TOO STG THIS
FAR S.

12Z MODELS FOR MOST PART SIMILAR WITH EVOLVING SCENARIO. PRIMARY
DIFF IS CONV PLACEMENT LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE. BASED ON 18Z SFC
FTRS...WOULD TEND TO AGAIN FVR ETA/META. STILL DECENT SVR WIND
THREAT ESP NE QUARTER AND WILL BEAR CLSOE WATCHING. HWVR...RAPID
CLEARING XPCD OVERNIGHT AS SYS RAPIDLY SHIFTS EWD. CAA SHALLOW AND
SHORT LIVED WITH WK WAA BY MON AFTN SO JUST A TEMPORARY BREAK FM THE
HEAT. MORE INTERESTING SITU ON TUE. SOME THOUGHTS YDA ABT PCPN CHC LT
TUE OR TUE NIGHT BASED ON ANOTHER TROF ZIPPING THROUGH SEMI-ZONAL NRN
CONUS FLW. ETAX DID INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY QPF YDA AND SHOWS IT
AGAIN LT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. COMPLICATING FCTR IS TRANSITIONING UPR
FLW BACK TO SIMILAR PATTN OBSERVED A WEEK AGO WITH DOMINANT RIDGE
CNTR OVR CNTRL PLAINS. CURRENT PROGRESSIVE PATTN AND HGT TRANSITION
SIMILAR AMG MED RANGE MODELS. GFS DEPICTION OF COLD FNT PUSHING
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDERNEATH LG SCALE RIDGE CNTR STILL LOOKS
ERRONEOUS WITH SIG DISCREPANCY BTWN ECMWF/GFS LL THERMAL PROG. GFS
PRIOR COLD BIAS WITH SIMILAR UPR HGT PATTN YIELDED MAX TEMPS 10
DEGREES TOO COOL AND SIMILAR SITU XPCD HERE. AT LEAST ECMWF AND GEM
ARE MUCH MORE REALISTIC WRT TEMP PROG. THEREFORE WILL CONT WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPS. IN ADDITION...THU SLIGHT CHC POP NOT WARRANTED GIVEN
LACK OF SUPPORTING GFS ENS MEMBERS. BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECTATIONS OF
RTN TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TO CWA.

.GID...NONE.

TEH

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1117 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TREKKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND
INTENSE AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO HOLDREGE AS STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND MODERATE TO LARGE SIZE HAIL.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED...UNTIL
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA BY EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND OTHER INTERESTED
PARTIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.

DEE