Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

A BREAK IN THE HEAT IS ON THE WAY.

COLD FRONT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AT
19Z WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BEHIND THE FRONT.  PRE-
FRONTAL TROF HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF A ONEIL TO ORD TO LEXINGTON
TO MCCOOK LINE.  WINDS THERE HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTH BUT COOLER
AIR MUCH BEHIND.  SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
TROF WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TO SEE IF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED TO WORDING.

ONCE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING...IT WILL MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  SETTING UP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  BEST LEFT WILL BE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.  HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT.  GIVEN CURRENT DRY
WEATHER TREND DONT WANT TO GET OVERLY HOPEFUL ON RAIN CHANCES.

SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN KANSAS ZONES AND
WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES THERE...OTHERWISE...GOOD DRYING AND
SUBSTANCE BEHIND FRONT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.  NOT MUCH TO HANG HAT ON AFTER THIS ROUND OF STORMS TO GIVE
CHANCES FOR RAIN.  WILL GO BACK TO DROUGHT FORECAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S BY MID WEEK.

.GID...NONE

KISNER

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-221000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

...VERY HOT AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER SOME RELIEF IS ON
THE WAY AND SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...

BEFORE TEMPERATURE DROP HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS ON TAP
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. REMEMBER TO USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND EXTREME CAUTION
IF YOU PLAN WORK OR RECREATION OUTSIDE TODAY.

TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ARRIVING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY HIGH AND
DRY CONDITIONS...WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
PUTTING THE BRAKES ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLING THE MID LEVELS...AND HELP TO
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONVERGE ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM CDT...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME EARLY STORMS IN THIS
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY GO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HAIL TO 1 INCH
WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND REACH INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 10 PM...HOWEVER MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. OVERALL COVERAGE HOWEVER WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY.

AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SPOTTERS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

10

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-221000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

...STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...

REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COOL FRONT IS CONTINUING TO
TRACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLING THE MID LEVELS...AND HELPING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
LEXINGTON NEBRASKA...SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...IS PROVIDING AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
LINE BETWEEN GREELEY AND OXFORD NEBRASKA...AND WILL FILL IN AND
DRIFT NORTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SOME EARLY STORMS IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY
GO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HAIL TO 1 INCH WITH A FEW OF THESE
STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND REACH INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 9 PM...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL COVERAGE HOWEVER WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY.

AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SPOTTERS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

10