Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

PRECIP CHANCES MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SATELLITE/ANALYSES SHOWED NW/SE JET ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SDAK SHOULD BE FORTIFIED AND PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A
RESULT TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF H7 WAVES OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BE COMING OVER THE WRN US RIDGE AND SUPPLIED ADDITIONAL ENERGY
BY GREAT BASIN JET. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED BUT MODELS PERSIST IN
GENERATING PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA TODAY.

BELIEVE THE LATTER MENTIONED SYSTEM HAS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  ADDITIONALLY...PROGGED LAPSE RATES APPEAR
BEST IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL ADD A SLGT CHC POP
TO THE WRN CWFA TODAY...BUT DAY SHIFT SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON NORTHERN
STREAM ACTIVITY.

APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF GID
CWFA BY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN.  WITH BEST
CONVECTION FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH...WILL REMOVE THUNDER MENTION HERE
TONIGHT.  NEXT WAVE...ALTHOUGH HARD TO TIME IN NW FLOW...SHOULD
AFFECT AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THEN.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT BEST CHANCE FIGURES TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
SE MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REFINE THIS WORDING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM TO NEAR FRIDAYS LEVELS WITH A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START.  HOWEVER...BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE SW MAY HOLD TEMPS A BIT IN CHECK.
LOWER 80S IN GENERAL.  SIMILAR MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE SOME MODERATION FROM CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IS
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR TSTMS WEDNESDAY/NIGHT WITH DECENT FRONT
COMING THROUGH AREA.  WILL LEAVE THU/FRI DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MRF
HINTING AT FLATTENING UPPER FLOW AND A POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.GID...NONE.

DROZD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1026 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

......SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THOUGH SCATTERED STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NOTED IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE NEED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF AN ORD NEBRASKA...TO
HASTINGS...TO BELOIT KANSAS LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO SIZE OF NICKELS...AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND WIND FIELDS...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES APPEARS SMALL...THUS THE
NEED FOR SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

MORITZ