Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
129 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2002

.SHORT TERM...FOCUS OF SHORT TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS ACROSS REGION ARE SOLIDLY IN THE
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS IS PRODUCING
VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES. THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF CWA HAVE EXHIBITED EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO AN
AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
LACK OF ANY FORCING. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO CWA EXPECT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...BYZ...AND TFX...EXPECT BEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS UNSETTLED AS 700MB LOW
TAKES ITS TIME MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST ON MONDAY. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN PLACE BELIEVE THIS TO BE A BIT QUICK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND
OF WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.  POHL

KGGW TBB 058/075 056/083 056/087 87674111
     BBBB 057/089 056/090 056/090 056/090 8700000000
KGDV TBB 058/076 056/083 054/085 87676111
     BBBB 057/089 056/090 056/090 056/090 8700000000

.GGW...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #453 WESTERN HALF OF CWA UNTIL
01Z...