Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 31 2002

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESENT.  EARLIER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT
BATCH CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AROUND BILLINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX.  MORNING MODELS PUSH MOST THE ENERGY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GLASGOW CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  APPEARS THAT TIMING OF
THE MODELS IS TOO FAST...AS CONVECTION HERE WILL GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.  CAPES APPEAR A BIT UNDERDONE...BUT HIGHEST VALUES BEING
PROGGED NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT AS FAR AS PLACEMENT.
AIRMASS UNSTABLE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD BE THANKS TO THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION.  BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  AFTER THIS EVENING TROF PASSAGE...ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES FOR TOMORROW.  A QUICK HITTER IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
EXPECTED TO CLIP US TOMORROW NIGHT.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE EXPECTED AS
DECENT WEST WIND TOMORROW HELPS DRY THINGS OUT...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR
ROBUST ENUF TO PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS.  FLOW FLATTENS OUT
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROF CARVES A BIT DEEPER ALONG THE WEST COAST.  RELATIVELY
WEAK SHORTWAVES BEGIN EJECTING OUR WAY WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING OUR WAY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY PASSAGE.  LEE TROF OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME
WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR IS
DRAWN IN FROM THE PLAINS.  NICE COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE THURSDAY
OR EARLY FRIDAY...SO A COOL END TO WEEK AND AT LEAST BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND EXPECTED.  VALONE

KGGW BBB 054/081 051/073 048/083 78212101
     BCBU 056/083 057/075 049/076 044/073 7812333211
KGDV BBB 057/083 051/075 049/086 78312101
     BEBU 056/085 057/077 049/078 044/075 7812333211

.GGW...NONE