Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Glasgow, MT

August 16, 2002Roosevelt County, Montana

NWS Glasgow, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 16, 2002, 2:20 PM MDT for Roosevelt County, Montana. It was in force for 55 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 16, 2002, 2:20 PM MDT (20:20 UTC)
Expired: Aug 16, 2002, 3:15 PM MDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: NWS Glasgow, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Roosevelt County, MT

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 16, 2:30 PM MDT	Thunderstorm Wind 52 E	Wolf Pt, MT	60 mph wind reported by Roosevelt County DES in Wolf Point.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 16, 12:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 366 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1678 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 16, 9:10 AM MDT, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 9:10 AM MDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
910 AM MDT FRI AUG 16 2002

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE...

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA WITH A
BAND OF SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
BETWEEN HAVRE AND GREAT FALLS. STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG MONTANA/ALBERTA BORDER WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS EVIDENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MORE MODERATE EAST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN ANTICIPATION OF THESE STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAVE HAD PROBLEMS TIMING THIS EVENT...WITH OBVIOUS IMPACTS ON
WINDS...SKY CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES. NOT CONFIDENT WITH
CURRENT FORECAST...BUT RELUCTANT AT THIS TIME TO MAKE ANY MORE
CHANGES TO FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY BUMP HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND STRONG WINDS DELAYED...BUT
WILL ACCEPT THESE FORECAST ERRORS FROM BEING TOO PESSIMISTIC RATHER
THAN RISK ERROR AND MISLEAD USERS BY BEING TOO OPTIMISTIC. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES DUE TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.    DNS

.LONG TERM...
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ALL SEEM TO AGREE ON A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  THE PROBLEM IS THE TIMING
OF THESE SHORT WAVES...EACH MODEL/ECMWF...UKMET...AND GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM/AVN...MRF//HAS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING.  THE AVN
IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BRINGS IN THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
ON TUESDAY...SO WILL UP POPS FOR TUESDAY/JUST TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ AND
LEAVE THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  CLOUD
COVER IN GENERAL WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. TLSJR

KGGW RBB /065 044/069 045/070 8873000
     BBEE 048/077 050/077 050/071 050/071 052/ 88000222222
KGDV BBB /079 044/070 047/072 8853000
     BBEE 051/079 051/079 051/073 051/072 054/ 88000222222

.GGW...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Glasgow, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 16, 2:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	McCone	58 min
Aug 16, 3:18 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Richland	42 min
Aug 16, 3:51 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Wibaux	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.