Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Glasgow, MT

August 8, 2002Wibaux County, Montana

NWS Glasgow, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 8, 2002, 4:33 PM MDT for Wibaux County, Montana. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 8, 2002, 4:33 PM MDT (22:33 UTC)
Expired: Aug 8, 2002, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Glasgow, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Wibaux County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 225 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 271 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 274 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -305 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1167 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 8, 2:30 PM MDT, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 2:30 PM MDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 1ST SENTENCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT THU AUG 8 2002

.SHORT TERM...
WILL DOWNGRADE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWING DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OVER W MT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPOKES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND IT.
A DRY SLOW THAT HAS BEEN WORKING INTO E MT SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS LATER TONIGHT AS THE DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

AVN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS THE ETA IN
24-36 HOURS MOVES THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON...BY EVENING TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 70...AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER
LOW.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING E...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE
CWA SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM KICKS OFF SHOWERS
BY THE AFTERNOON.

NW UPPER FLOW WILL BE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
12Z AVN MODEL RUN ACCELERATES UPPER TROF THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA MONDAY...FASTER THAN WHAT OLD MRF SOLUTION HAD.
CONFIDENCE IN THE AVN SOLUTION LOOKS LOW HOWEVER AS THE TROF CUTS OFF...
SO ITS SPEED SHOULD BE SLOWER. OLD MRF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EUROPEAN
MODELS...SO PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THOUGHTS LOOK GOOD. WILL TWEAK
HOWEVER MON AND WED A BIT. WITH THICKNESSES ON MONDAY STUCK IN THE
540S...DOUBT THERE WILL BE MANY T-STORMS...SO CHANGED T-STORMS TO
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO SWING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
UPPER TROF WED FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF T-STORMS. TUES MORN TEMPS LOOK
COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS COULD REACH THE 30S IN SPOTS.
JAMBA

KGGW TET 054/071 053/072 050/071 76771213
     WBTB 047/068 047/069 049/076 050/076 7634113311
KGDV TBT 060/073 054/076 055/074 76663113
     WBTB 052/070 049/072 050/077 052/077 7634113311

.GGW...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TONIGHT ALL ZONES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Glasgow, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 8, 4:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Wibaux	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.