Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
335 PM MDT TUE AUG 6 2002

.SHORT TERM..
18Z SOUNDING WAS RELEASED TODAY AND IS SHOWING A STRONGER CAP AT 800 MB
THAN EXPECTED. A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP FROM NEAR LWT...N OF
MALTA...N OF GGW AND NOW JUST N OF ISN AND SHOULD BE A GOOD RUNNING
BOARD FOR AN MCS THIS AFTERNOON. A LOT GOING ON AS TORNADO WATCH WAS
ISSUED RATHER QUICKLY. EARLIER THOUGHTS OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE
BEEN SCRAPED...BUT TRAINING MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. SINCE GROUND IS WET ACROSS THE NW ZONES (ESPECIALLY SW
PHILLIPS COUNTY)...EVENING SHIFT MAY WANT TO ISSUE A WATCH IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE MAP SHOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE MT WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SE INTO MY NW ZONES. LIKE PREVIOUS CANADIAN AIRMASSES IN
THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...IT/S ABNORMALLY STRONG (E.G. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60 AT CALGARY ALBERTA). AM EXPECTING THIS COOL AIR TO BE A
DOMINANT FACTOR TONIGHT (THE COOLER MAV TEMPS LOOKING GOOD).

SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TOMORROW...WHILE THE UPPER
TROF SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SW UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES PEAKING OUT NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S
-6. COOLER MAV TEMPS LOOK BEST AND CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED.

UPPER TROF THEN WORKS EAST AND CUTS OFF BEFORE IT WORKS INTO SE ID
THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL HANG OVER THE DAKOTAS...SO CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK GOOD. COLD POOL OF AIR DROPS INTO ID AND WY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
WE SHOULDN/T HAVE TO DEAL WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS.  JAMBA

.LONG TERM...
12Z AVN A BIT SLOWER WITH EXITING UPPER LOW LATER THIS WEEK. ITS TIMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION. UPPER TROF THEN FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE NW TO BRING ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS.   JAMBA

KGGW TTB 062/084 059/078 059/078 76466663
     BTBB 054/084 053/084 053/080 053/078 7600032011
KGDV TTB 063/086 060/079 060/080 76466663
     BTBE 054/085 055/084 055/081 055/079 7600132022

.GGW...NONE.