Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
900 PM MDT MON AUG 5 2002

.SHORT TERM...MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER ATTM. AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS JUST
BRUSHING SOUTHEAST CORNER ZONES. MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
RACING NORTH-NORTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST OF CWA. DISTINCT MESOCYCLONE
WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES AND BASEBALL SIZED HAIL IS ROTATING INTO
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY ATTM. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...ISOLATED
NATURE OF STORM DOES NOT WARRANT REISSUE OF WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
STRONGLY CAPPED AT 800 MB. MESOETA SHOWING A SMALL VORT MAX ROTATING
OVER CWA IN SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BY 06Z WHICH MAY ERODE CAP
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE REQUIRED LIFT FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN
60S. WILL KEEP GOING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES BUT REMOVE
SEVERE WORDING...EXCEPT FOR PHILLIPS COUNTY.  WINDS HAVE INCREASED
THIS EVENING ENOUGH TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER FORT PECK LAKE
FOR TONIGHT. FELTGEN

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED AVN PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH...TAKING INTO
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE FRIDAY. CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY. ELSE...FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY. TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH FROM CANADA
LATE SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT...BRINGING NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.   DNS

KGGW TTT 062/087 062/084 059/083 86424333
     BBTB 059/078 054/084 053/084 053/084 8611000320
KGDV TTT 063/089 063/086 060/085 86424333
     BBTB 060/080 054/085 055/084 055/084 8621001330

.GGW...NONE.

MTZ016>027-059>062-061200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
550 PM MDT MON AUG 5 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE
CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...DUE TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

KLEINSASSER