Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 PM CDT MON APR 29 2002

WARM FRONT LIES PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY SURGED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS CU
HAVE FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST
TOWARDS ABILENE. A FEW STORMS MAY SPRING UP WEST...WITH AROUND 100
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SAN ANGELO.

FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE HAVE LEFT IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...I HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE METROPLEX.
HOWEVER...THE 18Z FWD SOUNDING STILL INDICATED A FORMIDABLE CAP.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MAY MANAGE TO POP THROUGH DURING MAXIMUM
HEATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUR WINDS ALOFT HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLE SINCE EARLIER...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY BE
A HAIL OR HIGH WIND THREAT...RATHER THAN TORNADIC.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK AS IF THE HEAT WILL BE HANGING ON.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A BOUNDARY NEARBY...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD SPRING UP WITH ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA ATOP THE RIDGE ALOFT.

THURSDAY WILL BRING A DRAMATIC COOLDOWN AS A DECENT FRONT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR DIVES SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL DROP SOME 15
OR 20 DEGREES. AFTER THURSDAY...WE WILL WARM UP SLOWLY UNTIL A WARM
FRONT DRIVES NORTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM
AND DRY AT THIS TIME. ENJOY THE BRIEF COOLDOWN THURSDAY

FCSTID = 30
DFW   72  92  72  91 /  20   0   0   0
ACT   72  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-101>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-292100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
135 PM CDT MON APR 29 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO...TO PLANO
...ROCKWALL...KAUFMAN...AND CANTON.

THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS
...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES THAT OCCUR MOST LIKELY
WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...MOST LIKELY AFTER 500 PM.

ONCE AGAIN...HUMID AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HIGH
INSTABILITIES...A STATIONARY FRONT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD BASES
NEAR THE RED RIVER SUGGESTS THAT A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR IN THAT AREA.

THE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION....ABOUT ONE MILE ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE STRONG CAP
SUGGESTS THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TODAY. CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...THE CAP IS WEAKER...AND A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

A SPECIAL UPPER AIR BALLON SOUNDING IS BEING LAUNCHED FROM FORT
WORTH...AND THE DATA FROM THE SOUNDING WILL BE USED TO UPDATE THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ABOUT 300 PM.

TXZ091>095-101>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-300900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT MON APR 29 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO...TO PLANO...ROCKWALL...
KAUFMAN...AND CANTON.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE TORNADO
THREAT HAS BECOME QUITE LOW...BECAUSE OF LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE THREAT AREA. NEVERTHELESS..THERE IS SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS THIS EVENING
...MAINLY NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

AT 300 PM...THE STATIONARY FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR A SHERMAN TO
COOPER LINE. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING SUPERCELL STORMS MAY BE GREATEST
NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH MID-EVENING.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUESTED WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...MOST LIKELY AFTER 600 PM.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR
WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE THIS EVENING.