Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE...NOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY.  HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT A TEMPO GROUP WITH
MENTION OF TSRA FROM 13/17-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE DFW AREA AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON MODEL
TRENDS OF YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE ADDED A SIMILAR TEMPO GROUP TO THE 14/06-09Z PERIOD.
FORECAST FOR TSRA WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADJUSTING DURING THE DAY...AS
CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR A POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING...PER INCOMING
DATA FROM LATEST KFWD RAOB.

65/DD

...PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR A PALESTINE
...HILLSBORO...BRECKENRIDGE LINE IN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE PREFERRED REGIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN THE PANHANDLE BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THIS COMPLEX LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE RED RIVER
AREA DURING THE DAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VERY DAMAGING HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL HAIL/WIND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR...ALTHOUGH THE STORMS
WILL NOT BE SLOW MOVING.

THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE RED
RIVER...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OF POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME IN THE MID- TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
A LONG WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT SETS UP IN THE WESTERN U.S.
MOS FIGURES HAVE BEEN CHANGED SOMEWHAT...WITH POPS RAISED ABOVE MOS
IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY.  MOS TEMPS FOLLOWED
CLOSELY...BUT RAISED IN THE 4TH PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.

26

FTW 81/61/84/64 5631   ACT 85/62/85/64 2431

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-132100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
503 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM...TO
LEWISVILLE...AND SULPHUR SPRINGS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ALONG ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY THIS MORNINGS
ACTIVITY.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND WACO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE FORM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS 10 AM IN WESTERN
AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STAY TUNED TO COMMERCIAL RADIO...
TV...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.