Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

MORE TSRA TO CONTEND WITH THIS EVENING AS VORT LOBE ZIPS THRU. MORE
IMPRESSIVE TO SOUTH WHERE ACT WILL GET TSRA...DFW -TSRA. 850MB FRONT
MOVES THRU DFW AROUND 04Z...ACT 05Z-06Z...AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO
TS. LINGERING ENERGY WITH UPPER SYSTEM MAY SPIT SOME PRECIP AROUND
DAYBREAK AS TINY IMPULSE MOVES THRU. EXCITABLE NGM IS OUTLIER WITH
DECENT VORT MAX AND 700MB OMEGA GENERATING 0.10 IN WATER EQUIVALENT
BULLSEYE OVER DFW TRACON TUES AM. WILL LEAVE -RA...AS SNOW PROFILE
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN MORNING ONCE ENERGY HAS PASSED. NO
MORE THAN FLURRIES AT BEST. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...WOULD BE
NO ACCUMULATION ANYWAY. BL MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE TUES BELOW
FRONTAL INVERSION WITH WET GROUND AND COLD ADVECTION STUNTING
EVAPORATION AND MIXING. EVEN SO...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. 25

.AFTERNOON PUBLIC DISCUSSION 356 PM CST...
COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. AT 315
PM...IT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUFKIN SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF AUSTIN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS (THE ENERGY IS NOW NEAR DEL RIO). HOWEVER...SINCE A
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN AS EXCELLENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

OVERNIGHT...COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE NORTH
TEXAS AS THE 850 MB LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WITH
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST...THE COLD AIR WILL
TAKE ITS TIME DIGGING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST AIR TONIGHT
MOVING DOWN THE CAPROCK INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BY THE TIME COLD
ENOUGH AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION...PRECIP SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT.
WITH THE RECENTLY WARM GROUND...I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH
FROZEN PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY...LEFT
IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP...WHICH BY MID MORNING TUESDAY SHOULD BE
A MIX OF FROZEN PRECIP FOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS.
AGAIN...THE GROUND BEING RECENTLY VERY WARM...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
EXPECTED...THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL FEEL
LIKE CHRISTMAS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BLOWING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

FCSTID = 30
DFW   33  39  27  49 /  50  30   0   0
ACT   38  41  29  51 /  70  20   0   0
PRX   33  38  27  49 /  60  30   0   0
DTO   32  38  26  48 /  30  30   0   0
TKI   33  38  27  49 /  50  30   0   0
DAL   33  39  28  49 /  50  30   0   0
TRL   34  39  28  50 /  60  20   0   0
CRS   39  41  29  52 /  70  20   0   0
TPL   40  42  30  53 /  60  20   0   0

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN ATHENS...
WACO...TO KILLEEN LINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE THREAT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SOME URBAN STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...AS
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT RAIN MAY BECOME
MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE
TOWARD MORNING...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...MINERAL WELLS...TO
EASTLAND LINE.  NO SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TOWARD
MORNING...SOME SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SOME LIGHT RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A EMORY...HILLSBORO...TO GOLDTHWAITE
LINE...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...AS A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THESE WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
AN...ATHENS...WACO...TO KILLEEN LINE.